Saturday, October 11, 2014

College Basketball: 2014-15 Teams to Watch


Anyone can tell you it is interesting to watch Kentucky or Duke. A million articles can be and surely have been written on those teams, so go read them. You will turn on the TV and end up seeing Kansas or Arizona by accident. You don’t need to read more about them. Teams can be interesting for a lot of reasons other than being real national title contenders or having multiple lottery picks. Below are 16 teams worth following for a variety of reasons.

Tulsa

There are a handful of reasons Tulsa is interesting. The first reason is that they were pretty good last year. They relied on a group of 4 sophomore starters including James Woodard. Woodard is a 6-3 lefty that showed promise in his freshman year but ramped up his efficiency as a sophomore. He struggled in their NCAA Tournament loss to UCLA but he figures to be talented enough to lead a solid team in the AAC. Speaking of which, Tulsa is in the AAC now. Tulsa finished in a four-way tie for first in Conference USA last year, but despite winning the automatic bid, realistically they were not as good as Louisiana Tech or Southern Miss. They would likely be favored to win the league if they stayed in C-USA, but instead will face a bit tougher competition in the AAC. Finally, there is the coaching change. Danny Manning took his success at Tulsa and used it, as so many others have used Tulsa, to jump to a power five school at Wake Forest. Manning turned this Tulsa team into one that was good defensively but struggled at times to put points on the scoreboard. He is being replaced by Frank Haith. Haith’s Missouri teams were really the opposite. They excelled offensively but struggled to put together stops. It makes for an interesting coach to lead a team that demonstrated some salty defensive ability. As much as 2014-15 figures to be a promising introduction to the AAC, 2015-16 could be a huge year for Tulsa as they likely will start five juniors this year.

Texas

Texas was a fairly good, but kind of forgettable team last year. They started off pretty strong and as of mid-February they were still sitting at 20-5 (9-3). They wrapped up the regular season and Big 12 tournament with a 3-5 finish and earned themselves a 7 seed In the NCAA Tournament and a first round matchup with Arizona State. The large Cameron Ridley finished off an entertaining game with a buzzer beating putback of a Jonathan Holmes missed three that gave Texas the right to get waxed out of the tournament by Michigan. That Texas team would return everyone if not for Martez Walker and his sexual assaulting ways. As much as Walker demonstrated some promise in a bench role as a freshman, he was still just a bench player and more or less everyone returns. Their roster is fairly well balanced and frankly there is not anything obvious that they need, but they add potential one and done candidate, Myles Turner anyway. Turner is a long, athletic 7-footer with a shot blocking ability and the ability to stretch the floor offensively. His set of skills should complement Ridley’s skills well and could push Texas up a few seed lines in 2015.

Seton Hall

Seton Hall is attempting to make a run to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since their Kelly Whitney and Donald Copeland 2005-06 team got in as a 10 seed and got whacked by Wichita State. They were not particularly good last year despite being the only Big East team other than Creighton that was able to pin a loss on Villanova when Sterling Gibbs knocked down a buzzer beater at the Garden to beat the Wildcats 64-63. They actually lose quite a bit off this roster. Fuquan Edwin feels like he has been at Seton Hall forever, but despite his defensive ability, he was really not that good offensively. They also lose Brian Oliver, who was easily their most dangerous shooter, and they lose size in Gene Teague, Patrik Auda, and Aaron Geramipoor. So far this is not a compelling case for a team worth watching. Their backcourt of Gibbs and Jaren Sina is fine I guess, but probably not special. Instead Seton Hall can point to their top 15 recruiting class as reason for optimism. The class is headlined by Isaiah Whitehead and coach Kevin Willard was able to beat St. John’s for Whitehead by hiring Whitehead’s high school coach, Tiny Morton, as an assistant. I have no problem with Willard making this hire; he likely had to do something drastic to bring in a dynamic recruiting class to keep his job. The problem for Seton Hall is in 2014-15 they are still likely going to be too shy on talent to make a serious NCAA Tournament run. On top of that if Whitehead is as good as they are hoping, he will not be in South Orange long and frankly the rest of their recruiting class is merely fair. This is the year it probably has to happen for Willard but it may be too much to ask.

Nebraska

Nebraska was supposed to be terrible in 2013-14 because they are Nebraska and the sport is basketball. On January 12 they lost at lowly Purdue and their record fell to 8-8 (0-4) and this seemed like just the same old winter in Lincoln. However, looking deeper into their first four conference games, the lone game they were close to winning was actually the best team, Michigan. That game was at the newly opened Pinnacle Bank Arena. They won three of their next four after that rough start and those three wins, all at home, came against Ohio State, Minnesota, and Indiana. Nebraska was able to turn a curiosity about a new building into a legitimate home court advantage. On February 16 they somehow were able to pull off an actually impressive road win when they took down Michigan State. They finished the season on a bit of a down note, blowing a big Big 10 Tournament lead against Ohio State and then getting blown out by Baylor in the NCAA Tournament…but Nebraska was in the NCAA Tournament! They lose Ray Gallegos, who was frankly kind of bad, and Leslee Smith’s knee exploded, costing them a big bodied interior player. They can replace him with Georgetown transfer Moses Ayegba. Ultimately my guess is two things harm Nebraska. One is that they played over their heads last year. The crowds at Pinnacle Bank Arena contributed to this and the crowds should be good next year as well as they enter the season with a lot of hype. However, the talent did not meet the performance last year in what was truly a remarkable coaching job by Tim Miles. The other major issue for Nebraska is the lack of a reliable point guard on the roster. They were hoping for more from Deverell Biggs, who they had to kick off the team, and they certainly hoped for more from Tai Webster, whose freshman year was frankly a disaster. Perhaps Webster lives up to his ability, Benny Parker continues some of his solid play to end next year, or they get some unexpected early production from true freshman Tarin Smith. If they cannot find a point guard again this year, we will probably see more of the admirable but often inefficient gunning on the wing from Terran Petteway.

UC Irvine

You would not necessarily expect to see one of the tallest teams in the nation in the Big West, but UC Irvine exists anyway. It is more than just Mamadou Ndiaye, who at 7-6 is one of the most imposing defensive players in the nation. Ndiaye was a top 100 recruit and turned in a solid, if unspectacular freshman season. But the Anteaters also had two 6-10 players on the bench in John Ryan and Mike Best and they had another 7-foot freshman in Ioannis Dimakopoulos, although the 7-2 Dimakopoulos rarely played. The only guy they lose that they will actually miss is starter Chris McNealy. McNealy was not particularly good offensively, but that meant he fit in just well. Although they were a top 25 defense (not surprising with all that size), UC Irvine ranked 213th nationally in offense. That meant that on days that their defense was pedestrian, such as in their Big West Tournament game against Cal Poly, they are going to have a hard time putting together a win. Their defense could allow them to be a top 70ish team next year and a threat if they are able to make it into the NCAA Tournament.

William & Mary

William & Mary was kind of like a lesser version of UC Irvine, only the exact opposite. They had somewhere in the neighborhood of a top 40 offense nationally, but they were an absolute sieve defensively. They lose some talented seniors, but they had a balanced group of efficient scorers so offensively they should still be good. For a team with a reasonable amount of height, their 318th ranked defense should improve if only by accident. Another reason for possible improvement is that the Colonial as a whole should be down. William & Mary’s offensive attack might go up against Hofstra’s three man transfer brigade to try to represent the Colonial in March.

UTEP

Tim Floyd came to El Paso in the 2010-11 year and inherited an old team and although they did not live up to Tony Barbee’s last team, they still had a pretty decent year. Some rebuilding was then required and finally last year they were pretty competitive, finishing in fifth place, a game behind the four team first place tie of Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Tulsa, and Middle Tennessee State. Now the door is wide open for UTEP. Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, and Middle Tennessee State all had their rosters ravaged by graduation and Tulsa left for the AAC. They lose big man John Bohannon who was their most effective big, but he was far from their only big. They had a lot of size. Defensively they should be a handful and Vince Hunter’s freshman year shows promise for offensive ability. They need guard play, but with the losses of the top teams in the conference, UTEP could be considered the favorite in the league.

Green Bay

Alec Brown is not the type of player you would have seen on every roster. At 7-1 he was not surprisingly a really good shot blocker. At 7-1 he was somewhat more surprisingly a really effective three point shooter. That shooting ability with size got him drafted in the second round by the Phoenix Suns. As much as Brown was good, he struggled at times around the basket and Greg Mays was a more efficient scorer. They also have conference player of the year Keifer Sykes, who should be favored to win that title again. He may need to improve the team’s offense a touch if the Phoenix are to be a top 75 team again as last year they were better defensively than offensively. Some of that defensive ability could be attributed to the shot blocking presence of Brown. Regardless, this was a good team last year that was on the fringe of the bubble talk and they should be a touch improved from last year.

Columbia

Tommy Amaker has built Harvard to the point where they are not just a good Ivy League team, they are just a good team. That will not be different and Harvard should absolutely be the best team in the league again this year. Princeton loses two starters from a borderline top 100 team last year and Yale brings back all their starters from a team that finished second in the league. Columbia quietly popped to the top half of the standings last year in their strongest year in the Pomeroy era. Next year figures to be better as they lose not a thing. Columbia prefers to play at a glacial pace and try to outshoot teams from the perimeter. Unfortunately they were not quite elite enough for it to be a consistently effective strategy, but it did allow them to have competitive non-conference games against Michigan State, Manhattan, and St. John’s. Forward Alex Rosenberg leads this Columbia team that may be the biggest threat to Harvard in an Ivy League that should be its best in years.

Toledo

Toledo earned some hype last year as they started the season 12-0 before heading into Kansas. They then built a five point lead halfway through the first half before Kansas took over and ended up beating Toledo by 10. Toledo demonstrated an ability to score in that game and their ability to score was generally present throughout the year. Point guard Julius Brown led an impressive offensive group that will lose only wing player Rian Pearson. There is plenty of reason to assume offensively they will be as good as last year’s team that ranked near the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency. Unfortunately the other thing that Toledo demonstrated in that loss to Kansas was the inability to stop anyone. The concern for Toledo is that it was generally a lack of size that likely contributed to their defensive struggles and those struggles will likely still be present.

Northern Iowa

Wichita State will be the heavy favorite to win the conference again with their Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker backcourt. As much as Wichita State was clearly the best team in the league last year, their undefeated run was obviously unlikely and they are likely to lose a couple of games in conference play. There are a number of teams that will be capable of knocking them off as the league as a whole should be improved. The main team that could pose a threat to the Shockers is Northern Iowa. They return their starting lineup and it was a pretty decent, top 100 team last year. Ben Jacobson’s undersized team was efficient offensively and they liked shooting the three, even if they were not particularly great at it. The backcourt is not dynamic like that Wichita State backcourt, but they avoid mistakes. Their bigs are not particularly big and they spend a good chunk on the perimeter. That is something that may cause problems in nonconference play and if they get to the postseason, but in Valley play they should be fine. Defensively they are pretty weak and inability to get consistent stops will cause them a loss or two.

Oregon

People who enjoy watching boats steadily take on water and sink to the bottom of a body of water will probably enjoy watching Oregon this year. Obviously they lose Damyean Dotson, Dominic Artis, and Brandon Austin to being sexual assaulters. Dotson was a starter and Artis was a small back-up point guard that turned the ball over a lot and generally was unable to score. Dotson is not the only starter leaving as Mike Moser, Jason Calliste, and Johnathan Loyd are also all graduating. Their recruiting class was headlined by Jaquan Lyle, who ended up deciding to go to IMG Academy rather than enter college this year. Power forward Ray Kasongo was another part of this class until he was not admitted into the university and will be going to a junior college instead. Finally practices started and it seemed as though Oregon could start focusing on basketball again, right? Wrong! Jalil Abdul-Bassit and Elgin Cook were caught shoplifting. Cook was a big bench contributor last year. (It should be noted that those two guys were not kicked off the team and my sense is that considering Oregon’s initial weak stance on sexual assault, shoplifting will likely result in a bit of a slap on the wrist.) They bring in a couple high quality JUCO players and Joseph Young might be the Pac 12’s best player so it is not like the cupboard is bare, but depth is going to be a major issue, especially when another handful of guys end up doing something stupid to get themselves arrested.

Auburn

This one is kind of a cheapie. Auburn has not been relevant on the basketball scene since Cliff Ellis was cheating for them around the turn of the century. After 10 boring years with Jeff Lebo and Tony Barbee Auburn is looking to get back to what worked in the past as they have hired Bruce Pearl. The cupboard was fairly bare at Auburn as they started three seniors last year and no one else was that effective because they all played at Auburn. Pearl wasted no time bringing in some talent. Power forward Cinmeon Bowers is arguably the nation’s best JUCO recruit. He also adds New Mexico State guard KC Ross-Miller, who started at New Mexico State except for the part where he was suspended a couple of games for igniting a brawl in their loss at Utah Valley last year. Most interestingly, they add Niagara transfer Antoine Mason. With Doug McDermott now playing for the Bulls, Anthony Mason’s son is the nation’s leading returning scorer. Mason’s 25.6 points per game helped lead Niagara to a 3-17 conference record, worst in the MAAC. Obviously it is unfair to pin that all on Mason, but Mason may feel at home at Auburn, taking a billion shots and scoring a million points for a team sunk to the bottom of the conference standings.

Denver

Apparently Chase Hallam and Royce O’Neale are the greatest defensive players in the history of the sport. In 2012-13 both 6’5” players started for Denver. Hallam was a senior and O’Neale transferred on to Baylor. In that year Denver was a borderline top 50 team behind a good offense and a top 75 defense. Those two guys moved on and Denver’s offense took a step back, but was still respectable. Their defense somehow dropped from 71st to 244th. As a result, Denver went from an NIT team to a team barely in the top half of the nation. Now their only lost starter is Chris Udofia. Unfortunately at 6-6 he was one of their tallest players, which may be a contributing factor to their poor defensive numbers. The rest of the team returns and offensively they should be competent again. If their defense can return to respectable numbers, and we know Larry Scott can coach a reasonable defense based on a couple of years ago, this Denver team could be a handful again. Either way, they should be favorites in what is traditionally a tough Summit League.

Georgia State

It would not be totally stunning if we see Georgia State in the top 25 sometime next year. Their backcourt would be the envy of many power five schools. Ryan Harrow may not have been a smashing success at Kentucky or North Carolina State, but his junior year at Georgia State was solid. R.J. Hunter is getting some first round NBA Draft buzz and he is a good shooter. They also add Louisville guard Kevin Ware. They do not have a ton of size, but Curtis Washington is a super-efficient offensive player who knows his role and also is a terrific shot blocker. With Elfrid Payton leaving Louisiana Lafayette to the NBA, there is really no team in the Sun Belt that should be able to touch them.

St. Mary’s

Rex Walters has quietly done an excellent job at San Francisco, but the way the West Coast Conference is set up right now it is an upset if St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, and BYU do not finish in the top three in some order. Last year Walters had his Dons a game ahead of St. Mary’s in the standings. There were three seniors in that St. Mary’s starting lineup including point guard Stephen Holt and at first glance it appears as though they should take a step back. Brad Waldow is a nice piece in the post, but he and guard Kerry Carter are not enough in an improving WCC. The story with St. Mary’s is the transfers they add. Aaron Bright had a really good freshman year at Stanford before taking a step back, but he could still end up as the starter at point guard. Joe Coleman started at guard for Minnesota before transferring to St. Mary’s. They also add 6-7 forward Desmond Simmons from Washington. Randy Bennett should have enough pieces on this roster to return to the top 3 and possibly contend for a NCAA Tournament bid.

No comments:

Post a Comment