I'll just copy my preview from the preview last year to set this up.
The little blurbs for the smaller conferences will likely be shorter because they do not deserve much more consideration. When considering the percent likelihood that you should care, what I am referring to is the likelihood that come conference tournament time there will be a preference to who wins in terms of building the strongest NCAA Tournament field. So, a conference of all terrible teams we will not care much about. A conference with 4-5 pretty decent teams that are all pretty equal we will also not care a lot about because we can pretty much guess one of those teams will win. A conference with 1-2 decent teams and a truckload of bad teams will be one worth caring about a lot. These previews will go in reverse order of conference strength according to Pomeroy from last year. “Percent likelihood that you should care” goes away at conference #12because at that point you should definitely care.
32-SWAC
Little blurb: Texas Southern has now
been a somewhat competent team for a couple years now and it is possible Mike
Davis just has them at a different level. They are still bad (not a top 200
team), but they can have periods of looking like less than a disaster. Alabama
State and Southern were also top 300 teams in this league and Southern has the
better chance to catch Texas Southern as Alabama State lost pretty much
everything. The most exciting part of this league? Grambling State has been the
worst team in basketball (per Pomeroy) in 3 of the last 4 years. The other year
they were the nation’s second worst team. They are putting together an
impressive dynasty of badness and you have to figure they have a shot yet
again.
Percent likelihood you should care: 0%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Texas Southern
2.
Southern
3.
Alabama State
4.
Jackson State
5.
Alabama A&M
6.
Alcorn State
7.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
8.
Prairie View A&M
9.
Mississippi Valley State
10.
Grambling State
31-MEAC
Little blurb: North Carolina Central has
reached a level where they are just running away from this league. They were a
top 100 team and the next best was at 190. Their stranglehold on the conference
will be tested this year as they lose 4 starters off a team that never used
their bench. Their lone returning starter was kind of their worst. If LeVelle
Moton dominates this league again someone somewhere has to get him a head
coaching job somewhere up the ladder. Norfolk State should have a pretty solid
one-two punch with Jeff Short and D’Shon Taylor and if it were not for North Carolina
Central’s recent dominance in this league I might pick them to topple the
champs.
Percent likelihood you should care: 15%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
North Carolina Central
2.
Norfolk State
3.
Maryland Eastern Shore
4.
Howard
5.
Hampton
6.
Delaware State
7.
Bethune-Cookman
8.
South Carolina State
9.
North Carolina A&T
10.
Savannah State
11.
Morgan State
12.
Coppin State
13.
Florida A&M
30-WAC
Little blurb: You could probably copy
and paste this every year until New Mexico State finally finds a way out of
this dumpster fire. They care about basketball. The rest of the league is
basically the SWAC. Pascal Siakam should be maybe the best player in the
league. I’m not sure about the point guard play. 6-0 Ian Baker is a good
shooter, but I don’t know that he’s a point guard. They are still clearly the
favorites. Second best might be Cal State Bakersfield as they add a couple of
power five transfers.
Percent likelihood you should care: 90%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
New Mexico State
2.
Cal State Bakersfield
3.
UMKC
4.
Grand Canyon
5.
Seattle
6.
Utah Valley
7.
Texas Rio Grande Valley
8.
Chicago State
29-Atlantic
Sun
Little blurb: #Dunkcity is officially
over now I think Brett Comer and Bernard Thompson have graduated and now that’s
pretty much it from their Sweet 16 run. On top of that, they had already been
caught and blown past by North Florida. North Florida was far and away the best
team in this league last year, although Florida Gulf Coast and South Carolina
Upstate were not too far behind. While Florida Gulf Coast loses their
backcourt, South Carolina Upstate loses 3 starters. So, who is the main
competitor to North Florida? Would you believe NJIT? They have finally found a
home, even if it seems a bit geographically out of place. They were the second
best team of the teams in this league last year and their losses are very
minimal. They are small, but feisty and could create a pretty fun 1-2 race at
the top of this league.
Percent likelihood you should care: 40%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
North Florida
2.
NJIT
3.
Florida Gulf Coast
4.
South Carolina Upstate
5.
Lipscomb
6.
Jacksonville
7.
Stetson
8.
Kennesaw State
28-Southland
Little blurb: Oh no, Stephen F. Austin
lost really effective forward Jacob Parker to graduation! Oh wait, the good
news is that they return pretty much everything else. Thomas Walkup is great
and Ty Charles might be the next big thing. The only team that was close to them
last year (and close is a relative term) was Sam Houston State. Although they
are probably again the second best team in the league, they lost a lot and
figure to take a step back, even if they just have a solid defensive system. If
anyone is going to challenge that twosome it is probably Texas A&M-CC, but
really it’s not likely to happen.
Percent likelihood you should care: 85%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Stephen F. Austin
2.
Sam Houston State
3.
Texas A&M-CC
4.
Northwestern State
5.
Incarnate Word
6.
Lamar
7.
New Orleans
8.
Houston Baptist
9.
McNeese State
10.
Nicholls State
11.
Southeastern Louisiana
12.
Central Arkansas
13.
Abilene Christian
27-America
East
Little blurb: Vermont may have finished
third last year, but they were the league’s best team. They lose one guy that
was a significant contributor, but he was kind of their worst regular. They are
a solid bet to be a top 100 team. I wouldn’t put it past Albany or Stony Brook
either though. Albany will miss Sam Rowley, but their backcourt should be
really solid. Stony Brook does not lose anyone of substance and point guard
Lucas Woodhouse coming from Longwood could be a good contributor to maybe help
out the offense. This figures to be a really fun battle for third while New
Hampshire sits back sad that they are also not terrible and probably better
than last year but pretty clearly a step behind the top 3.
Percent likelihood you should care: 30%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Vermont
2.
Stony Brook
3.
Albany
4.
New Hampshire
5.
Binghamton
6.
Hartford
7.
UMBC
8.
Maine
9.
Massachusetts-Lowell
26-Northeast
Little blurb: Last year there were just
two top 200 teams in this league (St. Francis NY and Robert Morris). There were
also only 3 300+ teams so in these ratings they are ranked 26 basically based
on having a handful of 200-250 ranked teams. Good for them, they’re not total
disasters, but the truth is it still means they are not particularly
interesting. St. Francis NY was their best team last year and is my favorite
again, but they are probably worse than last year. Ultimately I think I just
don’t care.
Percent likelihood you should care: 1%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
St. Francis, NY
2.
Mount St. Mary’s
3.
St. Francis, PA
4.
Robert Morris
5.
Bryant
6.
Sacred Heart
7.
Long Island
8.
Wagner
9.
Central Connecticut
10.
Fairleigh Dickinson
25-Big
Sky
Little blurb: I would have so much loved
to see Tyler Harvey come back for another year at Eastern Washington. They
return much of their team including Venky Jois and they also add guard Austin
McBroom from St. Louis, who was pretty good. They would easily be favorites had
Harvey not gone on to the NBA. Instead I think the favorites are probably last
year’s champs, Montana. Montana was not as good as Eastern Washington last
year, but they should probably be improved with a really solid backcourt.
Percent likelihood you should care: 15%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Montana
2.
Eastern Washington
3.
Northern Arizona
4.
Sacramento State
5.
Weber State
6.
Portland State
7.
Northern Colorado
8.
Idaho
9.
Southern Utah
10.
North Dakota
11.
Idaho State
12.
Montana State
24-Southern
Little blurb: This league figures to be
won by Wofford again next year. They lose guard Karl Cochran, which is
certainly a problem, but many of his numbers could be explained in part just
due to high usage. He was not the highest efficiency guy on the team by any
stretch and if the rest could keep efficiency high with bigger roles that,
combined with good defense, could mean they do not miss a beat. While they are
the clear favorites Chattanooga and Mercer each lose just one starter off
pretty decent teams. They should both be improved, but the amount they were
already playing catchup to Wofford suggests Wofford certainly still needs to be
the favorite.
Percent likelihood you should care: 75%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Wofford
2.
Chattanooga
3.
Mercer
4.
Western Carolina
5.
UNC Greensboro
6.
East Tennessee State
7.
Furman
8.
VMI
9.
Samford
10.
The Citadel
23-Big
South
Little blurb: John Brown of High Point
may have the NBA in his future. Despite finishing in second and failing to win
the NCAA Tournament bid, they were Pomeroy’s best team last year. Brown loses a
couple of running mates, but does return his point guard and a pretty high
level shooter. While I would say they are probably the favorites, Coastal
Carolina should be right on their heels. They lose just one starter and
Shivaughn Wiggins should be good. Last year’s winners, Charleston Southern,
were actually the 5th best team in the league and they lose pretty
much everything they had.
Percent likelihood you should care: 35%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
High Point
2.
Coastal Carolina
3.
Radford
4.
Winthrop
5.
Charleston Southern
6.
Gardner-Webb
7.
UNC Asheville
8.
Campbell
9.
Longwood
10.
Presbyterian
11.
Liberty
22-Patriot
Little blurb: Last year this conference
was an absolute mess. Half of the conference was between 178 and 196 according
to Pomeroy. All of those schools lost a good bit of something, so that opens
the door for one of the two next best teams, Boston, to jump up into the mix.
Boston loses nobody and their offense is already pretty solid. Defensive
improvement would likely produce a jump in the standings. Lehigh finished third
in the league and lose just one starter. Bucknell won the league and lost three
guys, but their bench was used a lot. American had the second best Pomeroy
rating in the league last year despite finishing 6th. They had no
bench, but they lose a couple of starters but add transfers from George
Washington and Connecticut. If you had a ten-sided die, you have as good a
chance as anyone to pick the winner here.
Percent likelihood you should care: 5%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Boston
2.
Lehigh
3.
Bucknell
4.
American
5.
Colgate
6.
Lafayette
7.
Army
8.
Holy Cross
9.
Navy
10.
Loyola
21-Summit
Little blurb: North Dakota State won the
league last year, but South Dakota State was a better team. South Dakota State
loses big man Cody Larson and they miss him but have other big options. Their
guard play should be really good and figures to make them a pretty good threat
once again. North Dakota State again should be the main competition. Lawrence
Alexander rarely rested last year, but now that he has exhausted his
eligibility, they will need to find someone to replace his scoring. The good
news is they have an entire roster of guys returning that should be able to
work together to fill that void. There is a chance those two teams could both
be top 100 and nobody else in the league is top 200.
Percent likelihood you should care: 70%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
South Dakota State
2.
North Dakota State
3.
IPFW
4.
Oral Roberts
5.
Denver
6.
South Dakota
7.
Nebraska-Omaha
8.
IUPUI
9.
Western Illinois
20-Ohio Valley
Little blurb: Murray State won the
league last year in large part because of Cameron Payne. They lose three
additional starters. Steve Prohm left at a time where there were a lot of
question marks, although I assume the talent level is still pretty good for
this league. Belmont ended up taking the automatic bid last year, but
truthfully Eastern Kentucky was better than them last year too and UT Martin
and Morehead State were pretty close to Belmont. Still, this figures to be the
year that Belmont is the favorite. They lose Reece Chamberlain and it is not
clear who is the new point guard there, but everyone else has more questions.
Percent likelihood you should care: 60%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Belmont
2.
Murray State
3.
UT Martin
4.
Eastern Kentucky
5.
Morehead State
6.
Southeast Missouri State
7.
Eastern Illinois
8.
Tennessee Tech
9.
SIU Edwardsville
10.
Austin Peay
11.
Tennessee State
12.
Jacksonville State
19-Sun
Belt
Little blurb: Georgia State was
definitely the best team in the league and unfortunately they lose more than
just their two stars, R.J. Hunter and Ryan Harrow. Ryann Green was low usage,
but not bad. They will return Markus Crider and Kevin Ware from the starting
rotation. The talent level is not gone and they add a couple of transfers
including Indiana forward Jeremy Hollowell. Although they finished 4th
last year, Louisiana-Lafayette was actually the league’s second best team and
with Shawn Long primed for a big senior year before being a possible draft
pick, they should be towards the top again. Louisiana-Monroe looks primed for
an improved year, although it may not show in the standings as they
overperformed last year. While I have Georgia State as the favorite, it is
certainly nothing to be confident about.
Percent likelihood you should care: 30%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Georgia State
2.
Louisiana-Lafayette
3.
Louisiana-Monroe
4.
Texas Arlington
5.
Georgia Southern
6.
Arkansas-Little Rock
7.
Appalachian State
8.
Texas State
9.
Arkansas State
10.
South Alabama
11.
Troy
18-MAAC
Little blurb: Iona was definitely the
best team in the league last year and they lose less than anyone so they are
obviously favorites again. David Laury was good, although not great by Iona
offense standards and A.J. English figures to be a stud. They add three
transfers as well. They should be pretty loaded. The next 6 teams in the
conference last year ranged between 146 and 186. It’s pretty much a crapshoot
after Iona to see if anyone can compete. Although I have Canisius next, you
could go any of a number of different directions there and I wouldn’t argue
with you.
Percent likelihood you should care: 80%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Iona
2.
Canisius
3.
Rider
4.
Monmouth
5.
Manhattan
6.
St. Peter’s
7.
Quinnipiac
8.
Fairfield
9.
Siena
10.
Niagara
11.
Marist
17-Colonial
Little blurb: The top three teams in the
league last year were dangerous in William & Mary, Northeastern, and
Hofstra. Those teams also finished 1st, 3rd, and 5th
respectfully. Each of those teams lose just one starter. William & Mary loses
Marcus Thornton, who was maybe the best player in the conference. If not him it
was probably Scott Eatherton of Northeastern, who was their lone loss. Hofstra
loses Dion Nesmith, who was no Thornton or Eatherton. All three could be pretty
good again, but Hofstra should be slight favorites as they lose the least.
Second place team UNC Wilmington wasn’t that great and they lose a bunch, but
they add some pretty solid transfers, most notably Jarvis Haywood. James
Madison was a clear step behind, but they lose nothing. Overall this figures to
be an improved league as a whole.
Percent likelihood you should care: 25%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Hofstra
2.
Northeastern
3.
William & Mary
4.
James Madison
5.
Delaware
6.
Drexel
7.
UNC Wilmington
8.
Towson
9.
College of Charleston
10.
Elon
16-Conference
USA
Little blurb: Louisiana Tech again was
the top team in the league last year behind their system run of really good
athletes. They never rely too heavily on one guy and seem to have an assembly
line of guys that are a great fit for their system. That makes Mike White’s
departure for Florida a bit scary for the program in the long-term, but despite
losing three starters off of last year’s team, they figure to be competitive
again. They are not the favorites though. Old Dominion was the top team from
last year and although they lose a couple of guys from their 7 deep rotation,
Trey Freeman is back and may be league MVP. UAB showed up a bit early in March,
and by early I may mean by a matter of years. They started three freshmen and a
sophomore. Even this year seems to be a touch early, but they should be good.
UTEP is always pretty talented, but they lose three starters including Vince
Hunter to the pros a year early.
Percent likelihood you should care: 60%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Old Dominion
2.
UAB
3.
UTEP
4.
Louisiana Tech
5.
Middle Tennessee State
6.
Western Kentucky
7.
Rice
8.
North Texas
9.
Texas-San Antonio
10.
Marshall
11.
Charlotte
12.
Florida International
13.
Southern Miss
14.
Florida Atlantic
15-Horizon
Little blurb: Last year was a pretty
tight battle between Valparaiso, Green Bay, and Cleveland State for top team in
the league. Valparaiso ultimately won out and also appear to have lost the
least. Alec Peters is a really solid player and probably league MVP. Oakland was
a clear step behind those three despite finishing third in the league. They can
score and although they lose a couple of high minute starters, they add three
Big 12 transfers. They may top Green Bay and Cleveland State this year,
legitimately, but they are all a clear step behind Valparaiso.
Percent likelihood you should care: 85%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Valparaiso
2.
Oakland
3.
Cleveland State
4.
Green Bay
5.
Milwaukee
6.
Detroit
7.
Northern Kentucky
8.
Wright State
9.
Youngstown State
10.
UIC
14-Ivy
Little blurb: Harvard will likely be the
most talented team in the league as long as Tommy Amaker is there. Wesley
Saunders and Steve Moundou-Missi are huge losses, but Siyani Chambers and
Corbin Miller would be a pretty good start to the backcourt. The issue is
Chambers already is out for the year with an ACL injury. That certainly muddies
the waters, but they should still lead the league in talent. They probably have
at least the top 4 prospects in the league including a couple of top 100 bigs. Calling
Harvard the favorites this year is actually really controversial. Their main
competition last year, Yale, lost three starters and they likely have some
major issues with depth. Princeton was a decent team last year and their losses
are minimal suggestion improvement is likely. Columbia could be an interesting
team as guard Maodo Lo was excellent and they should have Alex Rosenberg back
who missed all of last year with a foot injury.
Percent likelihood you should care: 30%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Harvard
2.
Princeton
3.
Yale
4.
Columbia
5.
Dartmouth
6.
Pennsylvania
7.
Cornell
8.
Brown
13-Big
West
Little blurb: UC Davis and UC Irvine
were the top two teams in the league last year and while they were near equals
in overall quality, they did it different ways. UC Davis did it by shooting the
Hell out of the ball, but they lose their offense (this includes their top 4
3-point shooters). UC Irvine loses their top player, Will Davis, but they
return a lot, including an overwhelming amount of size. This is obviously led
by the gigantic Mamadou Ndiaye. They are unlikely to be much different than last
year and last year was pretty good. UC Santa Barbara loses just a couple of
guys, but unfortunately that includes rebounding extraordinaire, Alan Williams.
Long Beach State is a wild card as they lost pretty much everything but
unsurprisingly bring in a bunch of transfers. The biggest threat to UC Irvine
is likely a Hawaii squad that returns most of their roster. I am not sure why
they did not let Benjy Taylor keep the job, but Eran Ganot inherits a decent
roster.
Percent likelihood you should care: 75%
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
UC Irvine
2.
Hawaii
3.
UC Santa Barbara
4.
Long Beach State
5.
Cal Poly
6.
UC Davis
7.
Cal State Fullerton
8.
UC Riverside
9.
Cal State Northridge
12-Mountain
West
·
This league was alarmingly bad last year. They
had four top 100 teams (and that includes UNLV who finished right at 100) and 2
top 50 teams. Things have just plummeted downhill
·
Boise State took the league last year. While
they will obviously miss Derrick Marks, Anthony Drmic nabbed a 5th
year after injury last year and Lonnie Jackson from Boston College could be a
good second scoring option on the wing. James Webb was really special his
sophomore year and his NBA potential is starting to flash. The question for
them is probably mostly where they find a point guard.
·
San Diego State was the top team in the league
last year and there really is not much reason to think this team will be any
different. The athleticism is high as always and defense should be good. Malik
Pope gets the pro buzz, but he will have to do something more to demonstrate he
deserves it this year.
·
UNLV should be really talented again as always.
They lost a lot obviously, which was exacerbated by Rashad Vaughn and Christian
Wood leaving school early. They add some high profile transfers like Ike Nwamu
from Mercer and Ben Cater from Oregon. Their recruiting class is excellent and
Stephen Zimmerman is a possible one-and-done center. The question now is can
they find enough coaching to make the talent worth anything?
·
Speaking of coaching, Larry Eustachy has his
work cut out for him. He lost a ton and there just was not a lot of depth.
Eustachy apparently loves this team but no one else probably knows much about
who is there.
·
The other coaching situation here is Stew
Morrill is finally leaving Utah State. This was a really young team and they
were not bad. They started two freshmen and a sophomore and of their top 4
bench guys they had two more freshmen and a sophomore. There is likely some
talent here for new coach Tim Duryea, but it is also probably a year away.
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
San Diego State
2.
Boise State
3.
UNLV
4.
Colorado State
5.
Utah State
6.
New Mexico
7.
Fresno State
8.
Wyoming
9.
Nevada
10.
Air Force
11.
San Jose State
11-MAC
·
It was seriously the year 2013 that the Mountain
West conference was ranked 5th and above the Big 12 and SEC. Now
they have dropped so far they are actually behind the MAC!
·
Bobby Hurley had built Buffalo into the best
program in this league before leaving for Arizona State. They lose three key
players, including Shannon Evans who is following Hurley to Tempe. The talent
level is still probably OK, but the losses are significant.
·
The top team in the league last year was Central
Michigan despite definitely being worse than Buffalo. Central Michigan scored a
ton, but could not stop anyone. They lose pretty much no one and they have a
really good start with Chris Fowler.
·
Akron finished down in 7th in the
standings despite being pretty much exactly as good as Central Michigan. They
had a really deep bench and lose pretty much only two rotation guys. They were
young and figure to be improved. Being improved from already arguably the
second best team in the league means they could have a huge looking jump up the
standings.
·
Kent State loses a whole lot but Jimmy Hall is
going to have a gigantic year. Cornell transfer Galal Cancer could be impressive
and Maine guard Xavier Pollard was a 15 point per game scorer.
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Central Michigan
2.
Akron
3.
Kent State
4.
Buffalo
5.
Toledo
6.
Western Michigan
7.
Bowling Green
8.
Eastern Michigan
9.
Miami
10.
Northern Illinois
11.
Ball State
12.
Ohio
10-American
·
As predictable as SMU getting into NCAA trouble
while under the leadership of Larry Brown, it’s really a shame as well. They
were good last year and it would not be unreasonable to suggest it could be
better. Instead Nic and Ben Moore, Sterling Brown, and Semi Ojeleye just get to
play for the love of it all. It is going to be a dangerous backcourt.
·
Connecticut was too talented to be a fringe NIT
team last year. I don’t know what that means about Kevin Ollie. If it was not
for the previous year I do not know what we would be saying about him (although
in fairness the previous year was quite a year). He has got to get it done this
year though. They lose Ryan Boatright but the returns of Daniel Hamilton,
Rodney Purvis, and Amida Brimah sets a good foundation and they add to that
foundation with three studs in Cornell’s Shonn Miller, Seton Hall’s Sterling
Gibbs, and freshman point guard Jalen Adams. This is a pretty loaded roster and
might be better than SMU.
·
Cincinnati was a better team than I would have
guessed. Their defense was good again, obviously, but the offense, while not
good, was kind of competent. There is no reason to suggest they would be any
worse and a top 25 team would not be surprising.
·
Tulsa was one of the interesting teams of last
year as their record and performance in conference was not consistent with the
actual strength of their team. They were certainly not bad, but it figures to
be a step forward next year as their top 7 players are all seniors and they
lose more or less nothing.
·
I am worried about Temple’s ability to stay
towards the top of this league. They did not lose much but the loss of Will
Cummings on a team that struggled enough to score as it is seems dangerous and
their lack of offense should be more extreme.
·
Memphis. They lose five transfers. Their
recruiting class is great. They add Alabama guard Ricky Tarrant. I cannot take
them seriously. They should still stay on the right side of a huge demarcation
between the good teams and bad teams (there were 6 top 100 teams in this league
and the next best team was Houston at 220) but they have not done enough with
the talent they have to suggest they jump up in the standings of a league that
is really not bad at all at the top.
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Connecticut
2.
SMU
3.
Cincinnati
4.
Tulsa
5.
Memphis
6.
Temple
7.
Houston
8.
East Carolina
9.
Tulane
10.
UCF
11.
South Florida
9-West
Coast
·
The Gonzaga frontcourt is national championship
quality with Kyle Wiltjer, Przemek Karnowski, and Domantas Sabonis. They lose
some guards from last year and Kevin Pangos’s shooting and point guard skills
could be tough to replace, but there is some talent there. Josh Perkins
certainly has the ability to lead the team at the point. If the guard do not
mess it up they should roll through the conference again and be a major threat
in March.
·
BYU has lost a lot and nothing was more
important than Tyler Haws. Haws was a remarkable scorer with high efficiency
but it is hard to imagine scoring will be a problem for BYU regardless. Triple-double
specialist Kyle Collinsworth should be terrific and there should again be
plenty of minutes for Chase Fischer. Although it is hard to imagine them being
better without Haws, they probably are not a lot worse either.
·
It seemed as though Gonzaga, BYU, and St. Mary’s
were always going to finish top 3 one way or another, but that may not happen
this year. St. Mary’s loses pretty much everyone off of a shallow team and
Pepperdine sports a top 50 defense from last year with virtually no losses.
·
It seems like there should be a bit of a gap
after those four (and frankly I am only including St. Mary’s in those four
based on recent historical program strength). There were some other teams in
the same ballpark (or better) than Pepperdine, but the losses are pretty large.
San Diego loses their offense in Johnny Dee, San Francisco loses Mark Tollefsen
and Kruize Pinkins, and Santa Clara loses Brandon Clark. Portland is best
equipped to stay in there because while they lost a lot, they do have a pretty
good top three players led by point guard Alec Wintering.
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Gonzaga
2.
BYU
3.
Pepperdine
4.
St. Mary’s
5.
Portland
6.
San Francisco
7.
San Diego
8.
Santa Clara
9.
Pacific
10.
Loyola Marymount
8-Missouri
Valley
·
Wichita State should be about the same as
before. They lack a lot of size, but Cleveland State transfer Anton Grady
should be useful on the boards immediately. That Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker
backcourt should be incredible, but they probably will miss Tekele Cotton more
than some realize. Kansas transfer Conner Frankamp will provide more depth at
semester. Their recruiting class was Power 5 quality but mostly was guards and
wings so I wonder how much they will have the opportunity to help.
·
Northern Iowa had a pretty magical year last
year but they lose a lot, particularly Seth Tuttle. They still have a lot of
skill on the roster, but they lack size. A bit of a slide is going to happen
and it would be surprising if they are at all NCAA Tournament quality.
·
Wichita State may not be alone in the Valley in
the NCAA Tournament though. Illinois State was probably close to a NCAA
Tournament quality team last year. They lose a bit in Daishon Knight and Reggie
Lynch to transfer, but the talent level is still fairly high. Wing DeVaughn
Akoon-Purcell could end up with a pretty big year and there should be a lot of
defensive ability on this squad again. The question will be their ability to
score.
·
It would not be stunning if Evansville makes a
leap into bubble territory. They were a pretty respectable team last year and
they have a really good one to punch with guard D.J. Balentine and skilled big
Egidijus Mockevicius.
·
There is a lot of potential for badness at the
rest of this league. Loyola should be solid as they do not lose much and Milton
Doyle has the talent to grab some wins, but them even being NIT quality would
be a remarkable achievement. Over the years the lesser teams of the Valley have
kind of seen the bottom fall out.
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Wichita State
2.
Illinois State
3.
Evansville
4.
Northern Iowa
5.
Loyola
6.
Indiana State
7.
Southern Illinois
8.
Drake
9.
Missouri State
10.
Bradley
7-Atlantic
10
·
Davidson really showed up a bit early. They only
had one meaningful loss. That loss is very meaningful in Tyler Kalinoski, but
there is so much offensive ability in this team that they still figure to be
elite on that end. If they can find a way to get stops, they should be
outstanding. If not, they are still terrifying.
·
Dayton would be a strong threat to knock
Davidson off the throne this year as they only key senior they had was Jordan
Sibert. He is good, but Dayton still figured to be Dayton. Dyshawn Pierre
getting suspended for at least the first semester for alleged sexual assault
makes things a lot murkier on the court. They had a pretty solid class coming
in and James Madison guard Charles Cooke should help with some perimeter
scoring immediately.
·
At VCU there is going to be a lot of talent,
even after losing Treveon Graham and Briante Weber, but the question will be
how well Will Wade can transition as head coach after Shaka Smart left for
Texas. Wade is so young and pretty inexperienced, but with his background at
VCU before getting the Chattanooga job, it stands to reason that the transition
could be pretty smooth.
·
Richmond was a team last year that was probably
better than their resume. They lose tiny Kendall Anthony and he was probably
their top player, but it is not like that was by a large margin and there are
other capable guards on the roster still. Depth may be an issue, but they
should be pretty good again.
·
Rhode Island seems like they are always almost
ready to explode. The talent in the backcourt and on the wings is pretty good.
Jarvis Garrett, E.C. Matthew, and Jared Terrell should be great, but honestly
you would kind of expect them to have been a bit better than they were. They
add a couple of high profile transfers in Towson guard Four McGlynn and Memphis
win Kuran Iverson at semester. I still don’t know where the size is. If things
click the ceiling is really high though.
·
George Washington was not far from the
tournament bubble last year and there is reason for optimism that they could be
better. Their starting five should be really good and the additions of
transfers Alex Mitola (Dartmouth) and Tyler Cavanaugh (Wake Forest) should be
good parts of the rotation.
·
This league has a number of other teams that
have potential to jump up a bit. S.t Bonaventure has a good starting threesome
but lack clear answers behind them. La Salle plays really good defense and had
two rotational losses of minimal consequence. St. Joseph’s has some talent and
DeAndre Bembry is one of the league’s best players. They lose very little.
UMass lost a lot and it is not clear where their size comes from, but Trey
Davis and Donte Clark make for a good backcourt. There is some higher level ceiling
here for these teams but they seem a step behind the other teams in the A-10.
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Davidson
2.
Dayton
3.
VCU
4.
Richmond
5.
Rhode Island
6.
George Washington
7.
La Salle
8.
St. Bonaventure
9.
Massachusetts
10.
St. Joseph’s
11.
Duquesne
12.
St. Louis
13.
Fordham
14.
George Mason
6-Pac
12
·
Arizona has turned into a machine and the talent
level is going to consistently be high. They had a lot of losses, but it seems
like they will just throw an assortment of new high profile recruits into the
mix. Their only returning starter is center Kaleb Tarczewski. Gabe York was
efficient and Parker Jackson-Cartwright was excellent in limited minutes behind
T.J. McConnell. Justin Simon may take the starting point guard job and Allonzo
Trier and Ray Smith allow them to keep that elite level wing athleticism. An
interesting thing for Arizona will be to see how they integrate forward
transfers Mark Tollefsen (San Francisco) and Ryan Anderson (Boston College)
into the mix. This should be a talented and really deep team….what else is new?
·
At Utah Delonte Wright was a superstar, but he
alone did not explain them being a top 10 team. While they may take a step
back, the talent level is still going to be really high and that defense should
be elite.
·
There may again be a drop after Arizona and
Utah. UCLA is going to have some offensive ability and Bryce Alford got some of
that efficiency in his genes. Oregon has some big talent coming in led by Tyler
Dorsey, but it will be a challenge to figure out how to overcome the loss of
Joseph Young as he did so much. Stanford loses three really good starters, but
returns solid players with a few playable incoming recruits. I certainly assume
UCLA and Oregon are still tournament teams, but Stanford is questionable. None
are assuredly top 25 teams.
·
Cal is the team that figures to go from outside
the top 100 to the NCAA Tournament. They do not lose a ton and they return
productive guard Tyrone Wallace. Incoming freshmen Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb
are both top 10 recruits and Brown in particular is maybe a top 5 pick in the
2016 draft. Depth is still a concern, but the high end talent on this team is
very high end.
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Arizona
2.
Utah
3.
UCLA
4.
Oregon
5.
California
6.
Stanford
7.
Arizona State
8.
Oregon State
9.
Washington
10.
Colorado
11.
USC
12.
Washington State
5-SEC
·
Kentucky is going to be really good and a
national title contender, but they aren’t last year’s Kentucky. Tyler Ulis is a
wonderful college point guard and he will get help in the backcourt from
freshmen Jamal Murray and Isaiah Briscoe. Skal Labissiere is maybe the number
one pick in next year’s draft and is the top big on the roster with Marcus Lee
and Alex Poythress, who if healthy can probably swing the forward positions and
guard just about anyone. Kentucky’s recruiting class was obviously one of the
best in the country, but I don’t know that it has the elite-level depth of
other classes. It would be stunning to see them make it through the regular
season undefeated again.
·
LSU’s recruiting class is well known as Ben
Simmons might be the best freshman nationally, Antonio Blakeney is a top 5
freshman shooting guard and Brandon Sampson is not terribly far behind. They
could probably have used Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey staying in school
another year to help with size. They are going to be a handful offensively but
post play might be an issue.
·
Vanderbilt quietly had the third best Pomeroy
rating in the league last year (after Kentucky and Arkansas) and while they
will miss the efficiency of James Siakam there is a not going to be a shortage
of offensive options. Riley LaChance had a terrific freshman year and Damian
Jones is a fringe lottery prospect in the post. They have a decent recruiting
class coming in, but the more immediate help will be from 17-point per game
scorer Nolan Cressler from Cornell. They could absolutely be the second best
team in the conference next year.
·
Texas A&M was NIT quality last year and
should be a step better next year. They lose a couple of low-usage (but
admittedly high efficiency) starters. Anthony Collins comes over from South
Florida and is a pretty good passing point guard. Their recruiting class is
excellent with high level talent and depth. The next step better probably
should be NCAA tournament quality.
·
Florida could not score last year. The defense
was still top 10 quality but the offensive options were not there. Now they are
adjusting to a new coach after Billy Donovan finally left for the NBA and they
actually lost a lot of their roster. There is no logical reason why this should
suddenly become a good offensive team and being on the bubble seems like it
should be an accomplishment behind a bunch of freshmen, albeit good freshmen.
·
I’m not sure this league is all that good this
year but there is reason for optimism in the long-term. Not only have they
added some pretty good coaches in the last couple of years at Auburn,
Mississippi State, and Tennessee, but recruits are seeming to notice too. The
way things are going they are not going to be one of the worst Power Five
conferences for long.
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Kentucky
2.
LSU
3.
Vanderbilt
4.
Texas A&M
5.
Florida
6.
Georgia
7.
Arkansas
8.
South Carolina
9.
Auburn
10.
Mississippi State
11.
Alabama
12.
Mississippi
13.
Tennessee
14.
Missouri
4-Big
10
·
I get that Maryland has improved from last year,
but let’s not forget they were actually the 6th best Pomeroy team in
the Big 10 last year and they do lose two starters including Dez Wells. (You
could argue losing Wells is not that big of a deal because he was only
averagish efficient despite really high usage, but the fact is that he was high
usage and can the other guys keep up their efficiency without the go-to guy?) I
am not trying to sound harsh; I do favor them to win this league, after all.
Melo Trimble is a really good point guard and Jake Layman is an effective
stretch big. Adding Rasheed Sulaimon from Duke is the transfer that gets the
publicity, but Georgia Tech forward Robert Carter is probably the bigger
impact. Then add Diamond Stone, who may be one-and-done quality. They are good,
but I am absolutely taking the field over Maryland in the Big 10 and tops in
the nation seems like a lot for this team.
·
This could be yet another test of Bo Ryan’s
wizardry at Wisconsin. Frank Kaminsky is gone and they also lose Traevon
Jackson, Josh Gasser, and Sam Dekker. No worries, the Madison assembly line
will chug along with Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig. Zak Showalter will remain
super efficient in increased minutes. Good but unspectacular freshmen Alex
Illikainen and Brevin Pritzl will fit in seamlessly into the Wisconsin system.
We have seen it a million times before.
·
The greatest threat to Maryland is probably
Michigan State. Their losses are significant, particularly Travis Trice. Denzel
Valentine will see the ball in his hands even more, most likely, and West
Virginia transfer Eron Harris should be able to score for them.
·
There is probably a drop after that top three.
Michigan gets Caris LeVert back to join a roster that was very young last year.
Indiana returns most everyone from their team that could really score, but was
pretty disastrous defensively. It is hard to see them being much different.
Ohio State loses a lot and will be relying a lot on a good but less than elite
class.
·
Iowa might be a team that I am underrating here.
They tend to be Pomeroy darlings but the loss of Aaron White will likely sting.
You are basically looking at Jarrod Uthoff and a bunch of average type players.
To be as good offensively or defensively as last year they are going to need a
bunch of guys that have been there a long time to suddenly develop into something
they have never been.
·
Purdue has a confusing roster. Losing Jon Octeus
makes it kind of difficult to figure out what that backcourt will be. It seems
like 6-7 Vince Edwards is as well suited to be their point guard as anyone as
he at least has really good distribution skills. A.J. Hammons is a talented (if
sometimes unreliable?) big and then they add another big in Caleb
Swanigan. I don’t trust the backcourt
enough to consider them contenders in the Big 10.
·
The bottom three teams in this conference could
be really bad but there is reason for hope as Nebraska, Penn State, and Rutgers
are all bringing in at least one top 100 recruit.
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Maryland
2.
Michigan State
3.
Wisconsin
4.
Michigan
5.
Indiana
6.
Ohio State
7.
Iowa
8.
Purdue
9.
Minnesota
10.
Illinois
11.
Northwestern
12.
Penn State
13.
Nebraska
14.
Rutgers
3-Big
East
·
Villanova has dominated this league since it was
formed. They are absolutely going to miss Darrun Hilliard but they may miss
JayVaughn Pinkston more as what he did for that roster was more unique. The
backcourt is going to be terrific with Ryan Arcidiacano and Josh Hart.
Youngsters Phil Booth and Kris Jenkins were both super efficient. They have
maybe the league’s best big man in Daniel Ochefu. If that is not enough,
freshman Jalen Brunson may be good enough to move Arcidiacano off the ball.
·
Georgetown was top 25 quality last year and
should be improved. They lose a handful but D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera should be
first team all-conference and sophomores L.J. Peak, Isaac Copeland, and Paul
White all should be poised for higher usage years. Their top incoming recruits
are bigs and the biggest questions on this roster probably will be the depth in
the backcourt.
·
The next two teams in the conference figure to
be neck and neck in Xavier and Butler. They were about equal in quality last
year and both lose two key starters. Xavier loses Uber driver Matt Stainbrook
and point guard Dee Davis. Stainbrook was a good offensive weapon, but he could
be a defensive liability. I doubt Myles Davis can turn into a point guard so
the key for Xavier will be to hope Larry Austin Jr or Edmond Sumner can take
that role. Butler loses Kameron Woods and Alex Barlow. Barlow made them go at
the point and will be replaced by North Carolina State guard Tyler Lewis. Woods
was a wonderful rebounder and good finisher. The defense will miss Woods. You
could go either direction with these two, but I think I trust Xavier’s ability
to answer their questions more than Butler’s ability to answer theirs as Xavier
has a deeper stable of talent.
·
The spots after the top four are wide open. I am
not a fan of Providence’s roster. They were not very deep and they lose a lot
as LaDontae Henton is gone and Paschal Chuckwu and Tyler Harris decided to
leave as well. If it was not for Kris Dunn, this might be the worst roster in
the league. The good news for Providence is they do have Kris Dunn, maybe the
best player in the country. Marquette was not a top 100 team last year and they
lose four starters. Their hopes are basically based on Luke Fischer being
better than he actually was last year and their wonderful recruiting class, led
by likely one-and-doner Henry Ellenson, working miracles. Creighton finished in
the cellar last year but in half of their 14 conference losses they led in the
final minute. They lose a lot but transfers Cole Huff and Maurice Watson Jr
figure to lead which should be a team with improved talent. Seton Hall kind of
imploded last year and ended up losing Sterling Gibbs to UConn and Isaiah
Whitehead and his posse basically ran Jaren Sina out of town. Whitehead leads
what is a pretty talented roster, but a roster that seemed like a dumpster fire
for a solid half of last year. Those teams could probably finish in more or
less any order and any probably could be bubble teams.
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Villanova
2.
Georgetown
3.
Xavier
4.
Butler
5.
Providence
6.
Marquette
7.
Creighton
8.
Seton Hall
9.
DePaul
10.
St. John’s
2-ACC
·
Duke took the national title last year mostly on
the backs of their incredible freshman class. The big three have moved onto the
NBA and Quinn Cook was probably underrated for them last year. His efficiency
as he moved off the ball was incredible. In terms of returning guys they have a
good start with Grayson Allen and Matt Jones, but honestly the story here is
again the newcomers. In addition to maybe the nation’s best freshman class, led
by Brandon Ingram, they will also get a pretty effective big from Rice, Sean
Obi. The talent will not be lacking.
·
In terms of projection for this season, it was
maybe helpful that Justin Anderson missed some time with injury. He is their
main loss, although they will miss Darion Atkins as well. At this point
Virginia deserves credit as a system and the defense is going to be great. I
would think we have seen enough of Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill to know
that while offensively they may not be elite like their defense, they will
still be plenty good to sit somewhere around the top of the standings again.
·
I think people sometimes forget how good North
Carolina really was last year. They lost 12 games they were pretty unlucky and
they basically just lose one rotation player in J.P. Tokoto. Tokoto is probably
more of a loss in theory than reality. Marcus Paige was great last year, but
his junior year was probably a touch worse than his sophomore year. If he takes
a bit of a step forward he is the type of lead guard that could put them in the
Final Four discussion.
·
There is probably a bit of a drop off after the
top 3. Notre Dame has the potential to be wonderful if things go right, despite
losing Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton. Demetrius Jackson may be a first round
pick at point guard and Steve Vasturia, V.J. Beachem, and Zach Auguste are
still more than capable offensive players. Depth could be an issue, but as long
as they stay healthy the offense should be wonderful again.
·
Louisville loses three starters and their bench
was not used particularly much or productive when they were used. They are
going to probably rely a lot on transfers Damion Lee (Drexel) and Trey Lewis
(Cleveland State). While they get a bunch of wing help, interior depth might be
a problem.
·
I would be higher on Miami if I was convinced
that Angel Rodriguez would slow down his usage a bit and if I was convinced
they had enough shooters to overcome the loss of Manu Lecomte to Baylor. The
foundation is still present for a potentially really good starting 5 (or at
least 4/5 of a starting 5. I can buy them being bubbly but I think assuming
anything more is probably wrong.
·
Syracuse decided to take their postseason ban
last year in a year when the postseason was not going to be there anyway (well,
the NCAA Tournament anyway). They lose a couple of their athletes in Rakeem
Christmas and Chris McCullough, but athleticism at Syracuse is unlikely to be a
problem. The bigger problem is the lack of skill. It would be nice if Kaleb
Joseph actually started being good. I will need to see the offense score before
I am convinced it is not a liability.
·
North Carolina State may have made a run to the
Sweet 16 last year but remember they were accurately seeded as an 8. They had
talent, but they lose Trevor Lacey early and Ralston Turner and Kyle Washington
are also gone. It does not appear as though they add enough this year to avoid
getting a bit worse.
·
Florida State is a team I might be underrating.
They traditionally struggle a bit to score and that was certainly the case last
year. The problem is their often excellent defense has been not so excellent
the last 3 years. Their recruiting has been quietly good and they are adding
some good guards in this class. If those guards can score and the defense can
become more what you would expect with their size, they could make a bit of a
leap.
·
Pittsburgh fans can probably point to the youth
of last year’s team as an excuse for them being pretty mediocre. Depth could be
an issue, but they add a couple of transfers (Rafael Maia from Brown and
Sterling Smith from Coppin State) who can probably bolster the bench and Damon
Wilson Jr might eventually be a solid point guard, even if not immediately as a
freshman. While there is reason for hope, it is hard to justify putting them
much higher in the standings on the basis of the strong programs ahead of them.
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Virginia
2.
Duke
3.
North Carolina
4.
Notre Dame
5.
Louisville
6.
Miami
7.
Syracuse
8.
North Carolina State
9.
Florida State
10.
Pittsburgh
11.
Clemson
12.
Georgia Tech
13.
Wake Forest
14.
Boston College
15.
Virginia Tech
1-Big
12
·
Kansas’s reign atop the conference was in danger
last year. Oklahoma actually ended up higher per Pomeroy (by one spot, but
still!). Kansas loses a couple of guys to the NBA but in terms of losing guys
early for the NBA, this is the way to do it to not hurt your college team too
much. Cliff Alexander missed a lot of time with suspension and Kelly Oubre
could never consistently get things going. Their best returning player, Perry
Ellis, is probably best equipped to play the four, which is also where their top
two recruits, Cheick Diallo and Carlton Bragg, are best equipped to play. I
don’t think that’s a problem as they can stick two of those three on the floor
together just fine. Point guar play is fair, but not great with Frank Mason and
Devonte Graham. On the wing Sviatoslav
Mykhailiuk and Wayne Selden are the guys the pros like, but they are
probably better off with Brannen Greene getting more minutes. This is not a
perfectly constructed roster, but it is still certainly good enough to be
somewhere around the top of the Big 12.
·
Truthfully if Kansas was not Kansas it might be
smarter to consider Oklahoma the favorites. ON defense they are a handful and
their backcourt has some scoring options. I would probably suggest their
backcourt underperformed to their potential. Buddy Hield, Isaiah Cousins, and
Jordan Woodard all saw their efficiency numbers decline, in some cases kind of
by a lot, last year compared to 2013-14. Post play is a concern as TaShawn
Thomas is done. Ryan Spangler may get lonely in the post, but I don’t imagine
Thomas was the reason that the defense was as good as it was.
·
The concern with relying so heavily on transfers
like Iowa State has done is that if the transfers stop coming you could be left
with a lot of roster holes. Now that Fred Hoiberg is in Chicago there may be questions about how things will
work out in the future, but the concern probably will not start this year. Monte
Morris is an NBA prospect in the backcourt and Naz Long was an excellent
shooter. Georges Niang does a bit of everything inside and Jameel McKay turned
into a disruptive interior force at times as well. They are not done adding
transfers as Hallice Cooke should become part of the guard rotation and Deonte
Burton will be eligible from Marquette at semester.
·
West Virginia had mostly turned into a system
team last year. Press the Hell out of teams and try to get easy buckets. They
really struggled offensively without easy buckets. With a team that played with
a big bench you would not generally think losing any one guy would be that big
of an issue, but Juwan Staten was their best offensive player and easily their
best distributor. Offense might only get worse. They will still not be a peach
to play.
·
Baylor’s talent level seems to be decreasing.
Kenny Chery was effective for them at the point and Royce O’Neal was one of the
best of a good group of shooters. The three returning starters is a good start,
but it is hard to picture how the rest of the rotation will look. They have a
lot of question marks.
·
It will be interesting to see how this Texas
roster adjusts to playing HAVOC with Shaka Smart. It takes a special roster of
athletes to play that system and while Texas is always going to have athletes,
there will be a transition. Jonathan Holmes and Myles Turner were both good for
Texas last year, but truthfully they had a lot of quality depth in the
rotation. The cupboard was not bare for Smart.
·
I would not be terribly surprised if Travis Ford
is looking for employment at the end of the year. They slid into NCAA Tournament
last year, but now they pretty much have Phil Forte’s shooting, Jeff
Newberry’s….something? Freshman Jawun Evans should be a good point guard which
is good because they need bodies. Eastern Illinois transfer Chris Olivier
should help in the post, but I don’t know what else there is and in a brutal
Big 12, there could be some difficulties.
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Kansas
2.
Oklahoma
3.
Iowa State
4.
West Virginia
5.
Baylor
6.
Texas
7.
Oklahoma State
8.
TCU
9.
Kansas State
10.
Texas Tech
