A preview for the preview
The little blurbs for the smaller conferences will likely be shorter
because they do not deserve much more consideration. When considering the
percent likelihood that you should care, what I am referring to is the
likelihood that come conference tournament time there will be a preference to
who wins in terms of building the strongest NCAA Tournament field. So, a
conference of all terrible teams we will not care much about. A conference with
4-5 pretty decent teams that are all pretty equal we will also not care a lot
about because we can pretty much guess one of those teams will win. A
conference with 1-2 decent teams and a truckload of bad teams will be one worth
caring about a lot. These previews will go in reverse order of conference
strength according to Pomeroy from last year. “Percent likelihood that you
should care” goes away at conference #11 because at that point you should
definitely care.
32 SWAC
Little blurb: Last year Southern was not good, but they were one of the
few non-embarrassing teams in the league. Unfortunately they were not eligible
for postseason play. Texas Southern was bad, but still much better than the
rest of the league. Both teams lose a lot and Texas Southern gains a few
transfers again. I still assume they are both tops in the league.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 2%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Texas Southern
2.
Southern
3.
Alabama State
4.
Arkansas Pine Bluff
5.
Prairie View A&M
6.
Alcorn State
7.
Alabama A&M
8.
Jackson State
9.
Mississippi Valley State
10.
Grambling State
31 MEAC
Little blurb: North Carolina Central was a pretty decent team last year
and they battled against a bunch of overmatched squads. They lose enough guys
that the gap should shrink. Unfortunately that is because they should drop back
to the pack, not because the pack is moving up to them. If anyone is going to
challenge them it will probably be Hampton, but I will always be curious about
the level of talent Todd Bozeman can bring to Morgan State.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 8%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
North Carolina Central
2.
Hampton
3.
Morgan State
4.
Savannah State
5.
Coppin State
6.
Norfolk State
7.
Florida A&M
8.
Howard
9.
Delaware State
10.
Bethune-Cookman
11.
Maryland Eastern Shore
12.
North Carolina A&T
13.
South Carolina State
30 Southern
Little blurb: In the past it seems like this was always a conference
worth caring about because Davidson was always the best team and their
inclusion in the NCAA Tournament was always best for the strength of the
tournament. Well, that’s no longer as Davidson is now in the A-10. They add
Mercer, VMI, and East Tennessee State. Mercer was by far the best team last
year of all teams that will be in this conference, but that Mercer team is not
showing up this year. They lost everyone off that team. I still think their
program is strong enough that I assume they will be competitive in year one in
this league. Ultimately I would put Wofford as the favorites as they were
decent last year, but really young. Pretty much everything returns.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 5%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Wofford
2.
Mercer
3.
VMI
4.
East Tennessee State
5.
Western Carolina
6.
Chattanooga
7.
UNC Greensboro
8.
Samford
9.
The Citadel
10.
Furman
29 Southland
Little blurb: Stephen F. Austin was kind of playing a different game
than the rest of the league. Although they lose a lot, they are not totally
decimated. I figure they return enough to still be favored in the league.
Although Northwestern State finished in 4th last year, they were the
second best team in the conference. Long ago they reached a status as a program
that they are going to play fast and deep.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 15%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Stephen F. Austin
2.
Northwestern State
3.
Sam Houston State
4.
Texas A&M-CC
5.
Incarnate Word
6.
Nicholls State
7.
Southeastern Louisiana
8.
McNeese State
9.
New Orleans
10.
Houston Baptist
11.
Abilene Christian
12.
Central Arkansas
13.
Lamar
28 America East
Little blurb: Vermont is generally the top team in the league. Sure,
every once in a while Stony Brook or someone pops up, but Vermont is the
constant. Well, that and Albany screwing someone over by hosing the conference
tournament and causing havoc. Vermont will likely sit somewhere around the top
of the league, but the top four could really finish in any order. Vermont loses
everything. Stony Brook loses 4 starters. Albany loses 3 starters and has no
point guard. Hartford does not lose much, but they were starting from a bit
behind anyway. The likely parity at the top means it probably will not matter
much who takes this bid.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 2%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Stony Brook
2.
Vermont
3.
Hartford
4.
Albany
5.
New Hampshire
6.
Binghamton
7.
Maine
8.
UMass-Lowell
9.
UMBC
27 Big South
Little blurb: I do not want to mislead anyone. This is not a good
conference and there are not any teams that are likely to win an NCAA
Tournament game here. However, the league should probably be better than last
year, particularly at the top. High Point won the league last year and they
return most of their roster. UNC Asheville was Pomeroy’s best team and they
lose just two guys. Coastal Carolina was pretty much the same quality as UNC
Asheville and they lose just two guys also, but less important two guys.
Winthrop loses just one starter. Last year there were 7 teams ranked in Pomeroy
between 212 and 245. All but two (Gardner Webb and Charleston Southern) look
like good bets to improve. That is not to say I have much of a clue or
preference who will end up on top.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 5%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Coastal Carolina
2.
Winthrop
3.
High Point
4.
UNC Asheville
5.
Radford
6.
Charleston Southern
7.
Gardner Webb
8.
Liberty
9.
Longwood
10.
Campbell
11.
Presbyterian
26 Big Sky
Little blurb: Surprisingly Weber State has been a bit better
immediately after losing Damian Lillard a couple of years ago. Last year they
took another step back, but so did Montana so they were the top team in the
conference. Wayne Tinkle did a terrific job at Montana and that earned him
(cursed him with?) the Oregon State job. Those two schools have generally been
the class of the league, although both seem to kind of be dropping back towards
the league. Tyler Harvey and Eastern Washington are the greatest threat to the
top of this league.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 3%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Weber State
2.
Eastern Washington
3.
Montana
4.
Idaho
5.
Northern Colorado
6.
Sacramento State
7.
Northern Arizona
8.
North Dakota
9.
Portland State
10.
Idaho State
11.
Montana State
12.
Southern Utah
25 Atlantic Sun
Little blurb: When you think about the Atlantic Sun you pretty much
think about Florida Gulf Coast and Mercer. Mercer has moved on to the Southern
Conference so an initial thought might be that this conference opens up for
Florida Gulf Coast. That may be true, but actually South Carolina Upstate was a
better team per Pomeroy last year. No one else in the conference was top 250.
Florida Gulf Coast loses a couple starters but they bring in three transfers,
including Julian DeBose, who was pretty effective at Rice. South Carolina
Upstate lost three starters and it is less obvious who replaces them. Florida
Gulf Coast should be the favorite.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 35%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Florida Gulf Coast
2.
South Carolina Upstate
3.
Lipscomb
4.
North Florida
5.
Northern Kentucky
6.
Jacksonville
7.
Kennesaw State
8.
Stetson
24 Northeast
Little blurb: This should be one of the more unpredictable conferences.
The top 5 teams in the league last year had separated themselves a bit from the
bottom. The top 5 were all top 200 teams and the next best was Fairleigh
Dickinson at 280. The issue is every team at the top got pummeled by
departures. Robert Morris started a bit ahead of the curve and that might put
them a bit more prepared to lose a couple of starters, including Karvel
Anderson, and a handful of bench guys. Some of the teams from that lower chunk
of the league, including Central Connecticut and St. Francis (PA) return most
important players and could be candidates to jump up into that upper half.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 2%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Robert Morris
2.
St. Francis NY
3.
Bryant
4.
Wagner
5.
Mount St. Mary’s
6.
St. Francis PA
7.
Central Connecticut
8.
Fairleigh Dickinson
9.
Sacred Heart
10.
LIU Brooklyn
23 Ohio Valley
Little blurb: It seems recently the Ohio Valley always has a team or
two at the top that is pretty promising and can be a challenge to play. Murray
State had some excellent years and then they added Belmont who is always good.
Belmont was the best team in the league last year and they lose three starters.
Their depth was not terrific last year. Murray State loses just one starter in
Dexter Fields. Although he was good, they should be improved and dangerous.
Eastern Kentucky was a fun offensive team to watch and they lose a lot of guys.
I think they are still talented, but depth is a problem. The team to watch is
Morehead State. They should not yet be favorites as they were a clear step
behind those top 3, but they lose just two starters and bring on a bevy of
transfers.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 35%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Belmont
2.
Murray State
3.
Eastern Kentucky
4.
Morehead State
5.
SE Missouri State
6.
Tennessee Tech
7.
SIU Edwardsville
8.
Austin Peay
9.
Eastern Illinois
10.
Jacksonville State
11.
Tennessee State
12.
Tennessee Martin
22 WAC
Little blurb: This conference is ridiculous. It is a bunch of schools
no one can remember and New Mexico State. Somehow New Mexico State did not win
the regular season title last year; that honor went to Utah Valley. New Mexico
State was clearly the better team, however, and did take the automatic bid into
the NCAA Tournament. New Mexico State is enormous, even after Sim Bhullar left
school. His brother is still around, and he is also gigantic. The fact of the
matter is it does not matter who they left. They actually play basketball at
New Mexico State, and nowhere else in the conference has a program close to
theirs. They still need to be the favorites.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 85%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
New Mexico State
2.
Utah Valley
3.
Seattle
4.
Grand Canyon
5.
Cal State Bakersfield
6.
UMKC
7.
Texas Pan American
8.
Chicago State
21 Patriot
Little blurb: American may not have shown it last year against
Wisconsin, but they were the best this conference had to offer and they were
pretty decent. They lose Tony Wroblicky who was their best player and their
size, but that was it. George Washington transfer Jonathan Davis and Nevada transfer
Kevin Panzer add a bit of size to the roster. They should be pretty good again
next year. The team that actually won the regular season last year, Boston,
takes a step back after losing 5 key contributors. Holy Cross was not a bad
team, but a pretty clear step behind the top two. They lose only one starter
and should probably be improved. Colgate is the team here that was better than
their placement in the standings and loses just one starter. Ultimately this
league should be everyone gunning for second place behind American, however.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 60%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
American
2.
Holy Cross
3.
Bucknell
4.
Colgate
5.
Boston
6.
Lafayette
7.
Army
8.
Lehigh
9.
Navy
10.
Loyola
20 Sun Belt
Little blurb: Last year was more or less a chase between Georgia State
and Louisiana Lafayette. Arkansas State kind of approached the top two last
year, but they lose everything. Louisiana obviously lost Elfrid Payton to the
NBA so that is a big deal. They might still have an NBA player in big Shawn
Long. Xavian Rimmer can shoot. They add Oklahoma State transfer Brian Williams.
Georgia State lost a couple of starters, but their backcourt of Ryan Harrow and
R.J. Hunter is NBA quality. In fact, Hunter is probably looking at his name in
the first round of the draft at this point.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 70%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Georgia State
2.
Louisiana Lafayette
3.
Arkansas Little Rock
4.
Arkansas State
5.
UT Arlington
6.
Louisiana Monroe
7.
South Alabama
8.
Troy
9.
Texas State
10.
Georgia Southern
11.
Appalachian State
19 Big West
Little blurb: The class of the conference last year was UC Irvine and
that was mostly because of defense. They only lose one guy and unless 7’6”
Mamadou Ndiaye shrinks, they will likely be a really good defensive team again.
If their offense catches up at all they could make a leap. That’s probably an
unfortunate thing for the rest of the league, considering they were already the
best there was. There is other talent here. UC Santa Barbara has the best
player in the league in Alan Williams. Long Beach State often has the best
talent in the league thanks and despite the loss of Dan Jennings, they should
be a threat. The problem is there were capable teams last year but despite all
of that Cal Poly came through and stole the automatic bid. I could see the top
of the league this year being improved.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 75%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
UC Irvine
2.
UC Santa Barbara
3.
Long Beach State
4.
Hawaii
5.
Cal Poly
6.
Cal State Northridge
7.
Cal State Fullerton
8.
UC Riverside
9.
UC Davis
18 Summit
Little blurb: Last year was a year to definitely care a lot about the
Summit tournament because North Dakota State was really good. South Dakota
State, IPFW, and Denver were all varying degrees of “not bad” but North Dakota
State seemed like the lone school likely to cause damage. They won, got matched
up with Oklahoma, and won again before going home at the hands of Xavier
Thames. If there was ever a time for them to make a run it was last year behind
Taylor Braun and Marshall Bjorklund. They are gone, along with TrayVonn Wright,
leaving a team without their go to guys and also suddenly lacking in size. That
opens the door for….it is hard to say. South Dakota State loses three starters
including Jordan Dykstra. IPFW loses a couple of efficient starters. Denver
loses Chris Udofia, who was a unique athlete and defender at the Summit League
level. The other team to look out for is
Oral Roberts, who returns to the Summit after vacationing in the Southland for
a few years. They were a step behind the rest of the league, but they return a
good chunk of their players outside of Shawn Glover.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 30%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Denver
2.
IPFW
3.
South Dakota State
4.
North Dakota State
5.
Oral Roberts
6.
Nebraska-Omaha
7.
South Dakota
8.
Western Illinois
9.
IUPUI
17 CAA
Little blurb: Last year Delaware was tops in the conference mostly
because of their offense. They lose 4 starters so the offense will be
struggling. They take a step back, but they are not the only ones. Towson loses
4 starters including Jerrelle Benimon. Drexel loses three valuable starters
including Frantz Massenat and Chris Fouch. William and Mary loses some
contributors off a really good offense. Their defense seems like it has to get
better even if just by accident. The conference adds Elon, who last year would
have been middle of the road. They lose a ton of their team. This conference is
pretty unpredictable due to the high turnover. It figures to be down as a
whole.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 25%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
William & Mary
2.
Towson
3.
Northeastern
4.
Drexel
5.
Delaware
6.
Hofstra
7.
College of Charleston
8.
Elon
9.
James Madison
10.
UNC Wilmington
16 MAC
Little blurb: This was a tight league last year as the top 6 teams were
fairly similar in quality. Let’s take a peek at them in reverse order of
standings. Eastern Michigan loses a lot, but mostly it was their role players.
They also add three transfers. Ohio loses three starters and they lost some of
their more efficient players. Their success resulted in Jim Christian leaving
to take the coaching position at Boston College. Akron arguably lost their top
3 players, but they were really deep. Buffalo loses 3 guys including probably
the top player in the league, Javon McCrea. Western Michigan loses two
starters, but they were pretty big losses. Toledo only loses Rian Pearson, who
was good, but they should be OK to make up for that loss. Toledo seems pretty
clearly like they should be the favorites, but it was so bunched up last year
that it would be pretty surprising to be a runaway.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 65%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Toledo
2.
Akron
3.
Buffalo
4.
Ohio
5.
Western Michigan
6.
Kent State
7.
Eastern Michigan
8.
Bowling Green
9.
Northern Illinois
10.
Miami
11.
Central Michigan
12.
Ball State
15 Conference USA
Little blurb: Last year five teams were solid competitors in this
league and Tulsa ended up snagging the bid. Tulsa has moved in to the AAC and
that leaves Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee State, and UTEP.
Louisiana Tech was the best of the group last year and were probably more at
large quality than resume. Alex Hamilton was probably their best player, but
they lose 6 contributors and 4 that were fairly heavy contributors. Southern
Miss loses all of their starters and they are more or less starting over with
Doc Sadler taking over as coach. Middle Tennessee State also loses 4 starters.
Mississippi State transfer Jalen Steele should help at semester. UTEP was the
worst of the five competitors last year, but they have the most talent
returning. They have a lot of height, even without John Bohannon, who
graduated, and defensively they should remain solid. If anyone were to jump
into that upper group it is probably Old Dominion. They were good defensively
and lose just one player. Trey Freeman comes aboard from Campbell and he should
be capable of helping out on the offensive end. The conference also adds
Western Kentucky. Although the Hilltoppers probably will not contend for the
crown now, they are also not over their heads as they have some playable wings
and George Fant can be successful immediately.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 70%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
UTEP
2.
Louisiana Tech
3.
Southern Miss
4.
Middle Tennessee State
5.
Western Kentucky
6.
Old Dominion
7.
Charlotte
8.
UAB
9.
FIU
10.
North Texas
11.
Florida Atlantic
12.
Marshall
13.
UTSA
14.
Rice
14 Ivy
Little blurb: Last year Harvard was clearly the league’s best team, but
with a conference rating at 14, clearly they were more than a one school
league. Princeton was solid, as always. Columbia was not far behind. Yale and
Brown were competitive too. Of those four schools, Princeton loses the most, or
maybe it is Harvard. It is close, but neither was decimated. Columbia loses
nothing. Yale loses a couple of bench guys. Harvard and Princeton maybe each
drop a bit, although it would not be surprising if they can maintain. Columbia
and Yale figure to improve. Brown was not far behind them and they lose just
one player, although he was Sean McGonagill, who was pretty good. This should
be an improved league.
Percent likelihood that you should care: This is different as they do
not have a tournament, but you should care about the end of the season; 90%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Harvard
2.
Columbia
3.
Yale
4.
Princeton
5.
Brown
6.
Dartmouth
7.
Penn
8.
Cornell
13 MAAC
Little blurb: There were a handful of decent teams in this league, but
Iona and Manhattan stood above the rest. Iona has essentially achieved system
status and I assume they will again be excellent offensively and indifferent
defensively. A.J. English and David Laury are a really talented duo. They also
add three promising transfers. Manhattan had the embarrassing coaching fiasco
in the offseason with Steve Masiello, but the good news for them is he is back.
He will be tasked with trying to find a way to overcome the loss of three
players, including star George Beamon, while staying towards the top of the
league. If you were to pick another team in this conference to climb towards
the top it would probably be Siena. They were a middle of the pack team last
year but they were awfully young. They had bought in defensively but need to
find a way to score more efficiently on the other end.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 80%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Iona
2.
Siena
3.
Manhattan
4.
Quinnipiac
5.
Marist
6.
Canisius
7.
St. Peter’s
8.
Rider
9.
Monmouth
10.
Fairfield
11.
Niagara
12 Horizon
Little blurb: The top two teams in the league last year were definitely
Green Bay and Cleveland State. Green Bay is the only school in the league that
loses just one starter. Alec Brown was a good enough shooter as a 7 footer to
warrant being drafted in the second round, so clearly that quality talent will
be missed. They should still be quite good. Cleveland State had one starter
graduate, but lost another to transfer in Bryn Forbes. They should be solid
again. The other school to keep an eye on is Valparaiso. Valparaiso loses a
bunch of guys, but they started three freshmen. Charlotte transfer Victor
Nickerson is pretty talented as well. There are definitely question marks with
Valparaiso, but there is probably decent upside.
Percent likelihood that you should care: 85%
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Green Bay
2.
Cleveland State
3.
Valparaiso
4.
Wright State
5.
Detroit
6.
Milwaukee
7.
Oakland
8.
Youngstown State
9.
Illinois Chicago
11 Missouri Valley
·
Wichita State obviously had an amazing run last
year. I assumed they might struggle at times with their lack of size but that
clearly ended up being incorrect, in large part because they had arguably the
best backcourt in the country. They lose Cleanthony Early which is significant,
but I think with his monster game against Kentucky people forget that Fred Van
Vleet and Ron Baker were really the more reliable pieces to this puzzle and
they return. As much as last year I was concerned about their size, I am even
more concerned now. They bring in JUCO Tevin Glass, who seems to be more of a
wing player despite being 6-8. They also bring in JUCO Bush Wamukota, who is in
fact large, but that is an awful lot that you are putting on the plate of a
JUCO guy. This is still clearly the best team in the Valley and I am hesitant
to push them down on a national level too far due to a lack of a big because of
how wrong I was last year. Either way, last year was obviously lucky to remain
undefeated and they will lose some games this year and get pummeled in the
national spotlight for it.
·
The second best team in the conference last year
was either Indiana State or Northern Iowa. Indiana State will not threaten that
crown this year as they lose a ton. Northern Iowa does not lose much and they
add Virginia transfer Paul Jerperson. Offensively this Northern Iowa team could
be a handful, but they probably lack the size and athleticism to defend at a
level to make them an at large candidate.
·
I think we could see improvement in the middle
of the conference this year. Illinois State, Missouri State, and Southern
Illinois were all varying degrees of not embarrassing last year and all figure
to be improved. The conference as a whole loses a bunch of guys, but not a ton
of starters. This could bode well for Wichita State’s strength of schedule
numbers, but could bode poorly for their ultimate conference record.
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Wichita State
2.
Northern Iowa
3.
Illinois State
4.
Missouri State
5.
Southern Illinois
6.
Indiana State
7.
Evansville
8.
Drake
9.
Bradley
10.
Loyola Chicago
10 Mountain West
·
This conference was really down last year. San
Diego State was good. New Mexico was clearly a tournament team. Everyone else
was clearly not a tournament team. UNLV and Boise State were not bad, but
neither were really threatening the bubble.
·
San Diego State will be an interesting case this
year. They lose a couple of starters and still have a number of talented
players returning, but their offense was so reliant on Xavier Thames, it is
easy to imagine the offense being much worse. The defense will still be
excellent. Their recruiting has gotten really good, but regardless, to be as
good this year as last they are going to need someone to score at a level that
has not yet been proven.
·
This could be a challenging year for Noodles at
New Mexico. They lose Kendall Williams, Alex Kirk, and Cameron Bairstow. There
is still some offensive talent on the roster, but there will be guys filling
totally different roles.
·
Yet another team that will look totally
different is UNLV. They lose pretty much everything, but they might have the
most talented roster in the league. Their recruiting class is elite and San
Francisco transfer Cody Doolin should be a good point guard immediately. If I
had more faith that the conference was going to be great this year I would have
a lot of UNLV questions. Instead every team has a lot of questions so there
will be times talent should win out.
·
Boise State in theory should be a watered down
version of what they had been in the past. They will miss Ryan Watkins a lot.
He was an elite rebounder and they lack size and guys that can do much of
anything defensively. However, there will be games where Derrick Marks and
Anthony Drmic win on offensive ability alone.
·
Fresno State is worth keeping an eye on. Cezar
Guerrero is a talented point guard and they add Texas transfer Julien Lewis.
That is a talented backcourt.
·
Of the teams at the bottom of the league, I will
be keeping tabs on Colorado State. Larry Eustachy loses a couple of starters.
Starter Jon Octeus transferring to UCLA and then not getting admitted there is
a rough loss for the Rams. However, they still return a fair amount and they
add Stanton Kidd, who was really productive at NC Central. They also add
Dantiel Daniels from Southern Illinois, who was probably the best player on
some pretty bad Saluki teams. In addition they bring in a large class with a
handful of JUCO players that I assume Eustachy expects to help now. It would
probably not be smart to expect them to be real contenders in the conference,
but it would not be shocking either
Predicted order of finish:
1.
San Diego State
2.
UNLV
3.
Boise State
4.
New Mexico
5.
Colorado State
6.
Fresno State
7.
Utah State
8.
Wyoming
9.
Nevada
10.
Air Force
11.
San Jose State
9 West Coast
·
As usual, the top team in the league last year
was Gonzaga. They lose Sam Dower and David Stockton, but a lot of talent
returns, including Kevin Pangos. They add a couple of high profile transfers
including Kyle Wiltjer, who was a double digit scorer as a freshman at
Kentucky, and Byron Wesley, who scored 18 points per game at USC last year. The
talent here is probably about as good as ever. If Josh Perkins can step in and
run the show at point as a freshman, they could be really good.
·
The second best team in the league last year was
BYU. They will miss Matt Carlino, but he would have his moments where he almost
did more harm than good. Guard Tyler Haws might be the best scorer in the
country. Carlino was the only player they lose, but they add Wake Forest
transfer Chase Fischer, UNLV transfer Jamal Aytese, and the best recruiting
class in the league. Ultimately this should be an improved team.
·
St. Mary’s looks to be interesting. Despite
finishing 4th last year, they were actually better than San
Francisco. They lose a lot and their top returning player is Brad Waldow.
Transfers Aaron Bright (Stanford), Joe Coleman (Minnesota), and Desmond Simmons
(Washington) could all be starter quality. If the roster comes together and
they demonstrate enough depth, this could be yet another good St. Mary’s team.
·
I mentioned San Francisco and their finish at
third in the league. They lose a couple of starters, but their lineup should
produce points pretty effectively. It is hard to imagine them being worse.
·
Portland could be a pretty good sleeper. They
lose one guy that was a significant contributor in Ryan Nicholas. He was a
solid rebounder, but they have a decent amount of size that was available off
the bench. They were not bad at all last year and could approach good.
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Gonzaga
2.
BYU
3.
St. Mary’s
4.
San Francisco
5.
Portland
6.
San Diego
7.
Santa Clara
8.
Pepperdine
9.
Pacific
10.
Loyola Marymount
8 A-10
·
VCU did not win the league last year, but they
were the league’s best team. They lose a couple of good starters in Juvonte
Reddic and Rob Brandenberg, but Treveon Graham and Briante Weber should keep
HAVOC rolling. Their recruiting class was really good and Terry Larrier is probably
the best recruit in this league.
·
The team that actually took the regular season
was St. Louis. They lose all five starters and obviously that is devastating.
This year will be a good test to see if the St. Louis system is trustworthy or
if they just had a solid group of players.
·
Dayton is the team from this conference that
made the biggest run last year and they were, as always, a model of
inconsistency. I kind of wonder if that is because they don’t really have the
size to defend against everyone inside and they don’t really have any point
guard. They lose a fair amount and they will continue to have a bunch of 6’4 to
6’7 guys that probably look good sometimes and awful at others.
·
Two teams made pretty nice jumps in the A-10 in
St. Joseph’s and George Washington. The Hawks had UConn on the ropes before
letting them off the hook, allowing that miracle championship run. St. Joe’s
had no depth and they lose three starters so it will be a rebuilding process. George
Washington’s resurgence was fueled by seniors Maurice Creek and Isaiah Armwood,
but they had a pretty solid sophomore class, led by Kevin Larsen. If I had to
guess one of those two teams continue their momentum in that positive
direction, I would guess George Washington.
·
UMass will be an interesting case. They lose
Chaz Williams but I would guess Trey Davis will be OK. If he can manage to not
mess up UMass might have the best frontcourt in the league in Cady Lalanne and
Maxie Esho so competence at the point could lead to a promising year still.
·
There are two teams that are candidates to make
a run at possible at large consideration. Richmond was a really young team last
year and the injury to Cedrick Lindsay and whatever happened to Derrick
Williams might help them jumpstart 2014-15 a bit. Rhode Island coach Dan Hurley
has quickly upgraded the talent level in their program. E.C. Matthews is maybe
getting looks in the first round of the NBA Draft for some reason. Jared
Terrell might be a top 50 recruit at shooting guard for URI.
Predicted order of finish:
1.
VCU
2.
Dayton
3.
Richmond
4.
George Washington
5.
St. Louis
6.
Massachusetts
7.
Rhode Island
8.
St. Joseph’s
9.
St. Bonaventure
10.
La Salle
11.
Davidson
12.
Duquesne
13.
George Mason
14.
Fordham
7 AAC
·
I want to say the champs will not be the champs
again after losing Shabazz Napier along with a bunch of other really good
players. The talent level should still be good. Ryan Boatright will be taking a
lot of shots and they will probably see a lot of usage for North Carolina State
transfer Rodney Purvis. Kevin Ollie is bringing in a pretty solid recruiting
class.
·
I am worried for Cincinnati. They were really
good defensively but man, they were bad offensively and their only reliable
weapon was Sean Kilpatrick. Seriously, he was great and now with losing Justin
Jackson and Titus Rubles the defense will probably be worse too. I think they
recognized the potential difficulty because they opted for the gamble on the
quick fix with three JUCOs. This year could be a good test to how good of a
coach Mick Cronin really is.
·
The conference traded Louisville for Tulsa,
Tulane and East Carolina. Great trade! Tulane and East Carolina are both awful.
Tulsa had a pretty decent year and that was with a bunch of good sophomore
guards. James Woodard is the most fun of the bunch. Danny Manning was trending
in the right direction before he jumped ship and Frank Haith took over. That is
not a trade Tulsa fans were probably hoping for but for this year they should
still be fine.
·
SMU will be a popular pick to win the league.
They lose Nick Russell and that was more or less it. They have a talented point
guard in Nic Moore and good pieces around him. Justin Martin, who was a solid
starter for Xavier last year, is an immediately eligible transfer for SMU.
·
Jokes have been made about Memphis being the
same team every year. They are usually a bunch of super athletic players that
often are lacking in ability to play basketball. Those jokes will be threatened
this year as they lose everything they have except Shaq Goodwin. Southern transfer
Calvin Godfrey averaged 13 points and 9 rebounds a game and will be available
this year.
·
I was interested in Houston as TaShawn Thomas
and Danuel House were a nice little foundation for them. They have both
transferred but I would still guess they are trending upwards as Kelvin Sampson
takes over as coach. Funny phone jokes aside, he has obviously had a lot of
success as a college coach.
·
If someone is going to make a leap I might keep
an eye on Temple. I cannot believe they were actually as bad as last year. They
lose Dalton Pepper and then the transfer of Anthony Lee hurts a lot. Willi
Cummings is a pretty good point guard and they add three solid transfers.
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Memphis
2.
Cincinnati
3.
Tulsa
4.
Temple
5.
Houston
6.
UCF
7.
South Florida
8.
East Carolina
9.
Tulane
6 SEC
·
Kentucky started to put it together in March.
They lose pretty much only Julius Randle and James Young. Their bigs could end
up being historically good. I would be a touch concerned about their backcourt,
but frankly those concerns are just relative to the post.
·
Florida had a pretty incredible senior class.
That means they will be unproven, but they will obviously be talented. We will
probably see bigger roles for Kasey Hill and Chris Walker. They also add
transfers Alex Murphy from Duke and Jon Horford from Michigan. Their problem in
the SEC is that they kind of now have no obvious advantages over Kentucky. They
are similarly unproven (and frankly probably now less proven) and also not as
talented. They should still be a clear second place.
·
Tennessee quietly ended up finishing 7th
nationally per Pomeroy last year. They lose a ton of guys though and they also
lose their coach Cuonzo Martin. They add Ian Chiles, who scored 16 points per
game at IUPUI last year. They also add Memphis center Dominic Woodson. They
probably still have talent, but frankly who knows.
·
Georgia pretty hilariously had a good conference
record last year. They only lose one starter though, so they could change from
bad but towards the top of the standings to less bad but also probably not
towards the top of the standings.
·
If Anton Beard can come in as a freshman and run
the show effectively for Arkansas, I am intrigued by what they can offer. Bobby
Portis is one of the nation’s better post players and frankly last year this
team was closer to being good than most people probably remember.
·
LSU and Missouri were both teams that looked
like they were on the path to being good this year. LSU then lost Johnny
O’Bryant to the NBA and Anthony Hickey transferred so they not kind of return
nothing. Missouri was probably excited about their backcourt of Jabari Brown
and Jordan Clarkson, but they both declared for the NBA Draft.
·
Ole Miss probably will not miss Marshall
Henderson as much as Marshall Henderson is sure Ole Miss will miss Marshall
Henderson. Their only other losses were a couple of bench guys. I think Jarvis
Summers is not bad and Tennessee State transfer MJ Rhett could be an effective
post player for them.
·
If I am going to pick a random team to make a
jump in the standings I am picking Alabama. They lose point guard Trevor
Releford and then just a couple of bench players. Their incoming players are
really interesting. Michael Kessens was good at Longwood, averaging 14 points
and 9 rebounds a game. Ricky Tarrant was a 16 point per game scorer at Tulane.
Christophe Varidel averaged 19 points per game at Chaminade after a decently
successful couple of years at Florida Gulf Coast. Their recruiting class was
also good.
·
Bruce Pearl already has recruiting going in the
right direction at Auburn and he brings in a couple of promising transfers in
KC Ross-Miller from New Mexico State and the nation’s leading returning scorer
in gunner Antoine Mason from Niagara, but they lose all their size and they
were a pretty bad team to begin with. I would not be shocked if he has this
team in the NCAA Tournament in a year or two, but I would be pretty shocked if
it is this year.
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Kentucky
2.
Florida
3.
Tennessee
4.
Arkansas
5.
Mississippi
6.
Alabama
7.
Georgia
8.
Missouri
9.
LSU
10.
Texas A&M
11.
Auburn
12.
South Carolina
13.
Vanderbilt
14.
Mississippi State
5 Big East
·
Last year was pretty much a one team race in the
Big East as Villanova was incapable of losing to anyone other than Creighton. Villanova
loses James Bell and he was good, but everything else returns so this team
could easily be better.
·
Last year’s chase for second place was a one
team race as well. Creighton was pretty clearly the second best team in the
league and they lose everyone but Austin Chatman. A lot of their bench guys
were fairly successful, but they were all successful in very limited minutes
and you could argue their success was predicated on every team quintuple
teaming Doug McDermott all the time. Next year could be just about anything for
Creighton.
·
Everyone else also seems to lose a lot.
Providence had an alarming lack of depth and they lose three starters including
Bryce Cotton. Xavier looked like they would be in great shape until Justin
Martin transferred to SMU and Semaj Christon went to the NBA. St. John’s loses
JaKarr Sampson to the pros and Orlando Sanchez graduated. St. John’s cannot
score anyway. Marquette loses everything they had.
·
Georgetown struggled last year but they may have
been better if Joshua Smith was able to stay eligible. Apparently that is no
longer an issue. They will need support from their league best recruiting
class, but it was a league best recruiting class in a league that pulled in
some decent recruits.
·
Calling their class tops in the league is really
controversial because of Seton Hall of all teams. Their class was excellent and
Isaiah Whitehead is the best incoming freshman in the league. The problem with
Seton Hall is they return guards Sterling Gibbs and Jaren Sina but there is not
much else remaining from this roster.
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Villanova
2.
Georgetown
3.
Xavier
4.
St. John’s
5.
Providence
6.
Creighton
7.
Seton Hall
8.
Butler
9.
Marquette
10.
Depaul
4 Pac 12
·
Arizona is quickly turning into the program that
will be at the top of the Pac 12 yearly. They lost Nick Johnson and Aaron
Gordon early to the NBA but that was all they lost. Their recruiting class is
excellent and Stanley Johnson is a lottery pick in the making. They should
again be amongst the nation’s elite.
·
UCLA was clearly the second best team in the
league last year and they lose five really important players, including three
to the NBA. Their recruiting class is really good, but they are coming into a
fairly blank slate.
·
The good news for UCLA is the conference as a
whole figures to have a ton of question marks. Oregon was the third best team
in the league last year but the dumpster fire in Eugene continues to burn and
it could be a rough year. Stanford loses Josh Huestis and Dwight Powell and all
of a sudden their size is limited. Arizona State loses three starters including
Jahii Carson to the pros or something.
·
Utah figures to be another team that benefits.
They were really unlucky last year. Delon Wright was terrific for them and as
much as their roster kind of looks like a mess in terms of the way it is
constructed, they were pretty good. They should see it show in the standings.
·
Cuonzo Martin has a shot to make Cal a
respectable team in his first year. They lose Justin Cobbs and Richard Solomon,
but they might get a healthier, more complete year from Jabari Bird.
·
Colorado is a difficult team to figure. They frankly
struggled last year after Spencer Dinwiddie got hurt. Now he left for the NBA
so they are stuck with that roster that struggled again. The roster was really
young but featured some guys with promise. They just need to trust them to do
more so Askia Booker does not feel like he needs to do so much.
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Arizona
2.
UCLA
3.
Utah
4.
Stanford
5.
California
6.
Colorado
7.
Oregon
8.
Arizona State
9.
Washington
10.
USC
11.
Oregon State
12.
Washington State
3 ACC
·
This is supposed to be the year the ACC takes
over as the greatest thing that ever existed as they add Louisville, the nation’s
best team from last year. They seem unlikely to be the best team in the country
again. Russ Smith is in the NBA now and Luke Hancock’s shooting will be missed.
For some reason Montrezl Harrell came back to school and their recruiting class
includes some promising size. Post play will not be an issue, but I am a bit
less confident in the backcourt.
·
Duke is obviously going to be a really different
team as they relied so heavily on Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood last year. They
still had talent returning, particularly in the backcourt. Jahlil Oklafor and
Tyus Jones headline their excellent four man class. While the talent level has
not changed from last year, it is certainly questionable how it comes together.
·
Virginia was the best team in the ACC last year
and it is probably unfair to say that was without star power because frankly in
Joe Harris and Malcolm Brogdon, they did have a couple of stars. Harris has
moved onto Cleveland but Brogdon headlines a roster that is not lacking in
ability. (That is not to say we shouldn’t trust the system. Tony Bennett
coaches to his system beautifully.)
·
I will have a hard time ever predicting Syracuse
to struggle as their struggles will all be relative. Jim Boeheim, for as much
as I may dislike him, knows how to recruit to and coach a system. They return
just two starters, but they were definitely more of their role players in the
rotation. Freshman Chris McCullough figures to be a defensive terror in the
zone. It would be unreasonable to expect Kaleb Joseph to be anything close to
Tyler Ennis in his freshman year. Syracuse is going to be good, but it would be
pretty stunning if this team was a legitimate contender for the ACC crown.
·
When watching North Carolina it is interesting
that their talent level just does not seem elite. Marcus Paige might be a first
team All American, but I am not sure I trust anyone else on their roster. That
opens up the door for their excellent three man class (each player is a top 20
recruit) to maybe make an impact immediately.
·
Pitt was the other top 25 team in the ACC last
year. Lamar Patterson started the season amazingly and kind of decreased in
efficiency as the year went on. Still, it was a wonderful senior year. Without him
and their top big man, Talib Zanna, there will be a bit of an adjustment
period, but the roster is not bare behind them.
·
Clemson and North Carolina State are both in
similar shoes. Clemson looked fine behind K.J. McDaniels and North Carolina
State looked fine behind T.J. Warren, but then both left for the NBA. If I had
to pick one of those teams to be a tournament team next year I would pick North
Carolina State because they have recruited better (and their incoming class
this year shows this as well). They also add Trevor Lacey, who was solid at
Alabama.
·
Florida State should be to similar to last year.
That probably means a bubble team because of good defense and an abundance of
giant people. On a team without a number of great offensive options losing Ian
Miller and Okaro White will hurt. They should probably see some pretty big numbers
for guard Aaron Thomas though.
·
Miami was not particularly good last year
despite having a pretty old roster. What makes them interesting is they will
have transfers Sheldon McClellan from Texas and Angel Rodriguez from Kansas
State. McClellan was a 14 point per game scorer and Rodriguez averaged 11
points and 5 assists per game. That makes for a promising backcourt and if they
can find pieces around them they could see improvement. I’m just not sure the
talent is there.
·
Notre Dame is another team that was pretty bad,
but the news for them is Jerian Grant should be back after missing the
conference portion of the season due to academics. Their offense should again
be excellent, but their inability to guard should keep them out of NCAA
tournament consideration.
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Duke
2.
Virginia
3.
Louisville
4.
North Carolina
5.
Syracuse
6.
Pittsburgh
7.
Florida State
8.
North Carolina State
9.
Miami
10.
Notre Dame
11.
Clemson
12.
Georgia Tech
13.
Wake Forest
14.
Boston College
15.
Virginia Tech
2 Big 12
·
Kansas is going to win this league because of
course they will. They actually return a lot. Andrew Wiggins was actually
probably better than he got credit for. He was criticized a lot for not being
LeBron James, but he was really effective. Their main loss other than him was
Joel Embiid, but remember he kind of didn’t play for them anyway due to always
being broken. So, say what you want about the supporting cast; it was not
great. Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden is a fine start, however And Cliff
Alexander and Kelly Oubre might both be one and done guys. Point guard will be
the question. Naadir Tharpe and Frank Mason were both prone to some poor
decisions, but between them and incoming freshman Devonte Graham there are
options and they can kind of hope something sticks.
·
There will be people that Texas could win the
conference and those people probably have not been watching Big 12 basketball
the past decade. Texas should be good though. They were extraordinarily young as
they started three sophomores and a freshman. They return everything including
their star Jonathan Holmes. It is a solid roster and they will get to add
likely one and done guy, center Myles Turner.
·
Oklahoma again will be a handful offensively.
They were balanced and good offensively, but their best player was probably
Cameron Clark and he is gone. Defensively was more of a struggle and that is
probably because they were really short. They tried to remedy that by bringing
in a lot of size in their recruiting class, but it is not necessarily a lot of
talent you would expect to make a major impact as a freshman (with the possible
exception of power forward Dante Buford).
·
Iowa State loses two pretty indispensable players
in point guard DeAndre Kane and Melvin Ejim. As great as Kane was, Ejim is
going to be a handful to replace. They are a pretty small team that played
without a ton of depth so losing those two could be a bit of a challenge to
replace. Then again, shockingly, Fred Hoiberg is bringing on some impressive
transfers. Abdel Nader averaged 13 points and 6 rebounds a game at Northern
Illinois. Bryace Dejean-Jones averaged 14 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists at
UNLV. Jameel McKay will be eligible at semester after transferring from
Marquette. This all makes them a bit unpredictable, but the talent will still
be present.
·
Baylor is probably going to be a different type
of Baylor team. They generally have been bringing in waves of long, athletic
players, but now they lose four starters and their recruiting class is pretty
pedestrian. It will take a heck of a coaching job to get this team in NCAA
consideration, and that seems unlikely.
·
Kansas State’s success last year was primarily
based on what they were able to do on the defensive side of the court. They could
force stops but scoring consistently was a bit of a struggle, despite a
promising freshman year from Marcus Foster. They will add 17 point per game
scorer Justin Edwards from Maine, but he was not really that efficient in
scoring either. Brandon Bolden’s size might contribute to continuing some of
that defensive success. I tend to think one of their issues offensively is that
they really have no point guard so I fear offensively it could be a lot of give
the ball to Edwards and Foster and let them try to do something alone. That
sounds like a recipe for inefficiency.
·
Oklahoma State gave us a taste of life without
Marcus Smart and it was not pretty. Markel Brown headlines a bunch of other
losses as well. There is little reason to trust that Oklahoma State is anything
better than an NIT team. Even that might be a stretch.
·
There were flashes of competence last year from
West Virginia, but the lack of ability to defend kept it from being more than
that. They had no seniors, but they lose a couple of starters to transfer.
Whether they are better or worse is unclear, but if they are better NCAA
Tournament better seems unlikely.
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Kansas
2.
Texas
3.
Oklahoma
4.
Kansas State
5.
Iowa State
6.
Baylor
7.
Oklahoma State
8.
West Virginia
9.
Texas Tech
10.
TCU
1 Big 10
·
Michigan won the league last year but repeating
would be an upset. They lose three members of their starting lineup. Mitch
McGary also is leaving although he barely played last year. They lose valuable
bench big Jon Horford to Florida. That puts an awful lot of pressure on Caris
LeVert and Derrick Walton. LeVert is getting a lot of NBA buzz, but I am still
in “I’ll believe it when I see it” mode, waiting to see him be excellent when
he is the man. Their recruiting class does not look like a class that will come
in and take the Big 10 by storm as freshmen.
·
Wisconsin might have been the best team in the
league last year and they look like a good bet to be tops this year. They are
set at point guard with Traevon Jackson and they have an excellent twosome in
Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker. They were a top 10 team last year and they could
easily be improved.
·
Tom Izzo has his work cut out for him. He lost
three really good starters off last year’s team and their incoming players do
not necessarily look like they will take over the conference. I am not saying
Izzo wishes he would have taken the Cleveland Cavaliers job (well, he probably
does) based on this roster, but it is probably more fringe top 25 than top 10.
·
Ohio State could be tough to figure. They lose
three starters so there will be a degree to which they are starting over, but
they have an influx of some really interesting players. They got Temple
transfer Anthony Lee, who averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds a game. Their four
man recruiting class is best in the league and has 3 top 30 guys. In terms of
straight physical talent, this is probably the best in the conference.
·
Iowa is going to be everyone’s pick to improve
and for good reason. They were a top 30 quality team last year that just kind
of melted down down the stretch. They lose Roy Devyn Marble, Malsahn Basabe,
and Zach McCabe. As good as they were, particularly Roy Devyn Marble, those are
all at a position that is replaceable. Point guard play is solid, if
unspectacular and they have a decent amount of size. Still, although I have
them second in the league having them second might be equal parts being
impressed with Iowa and being a bit down on the conference as a whole.
·
A lot of people are going to overrate Nebraska.
They finished fourth in the league last year because they were way improved but
also because their conference schedule was really friendly. They still have no
point guard so that puts them in a position where Terran Petteway is having to
make a lot of inefficient decisions. They could end up being a bit improved
(although I would kind of expect them to be worse due to some regression
related to their talent level) but still drop in the standings.
·
Minnesota was a bubble quality team and they
pretty much only lose Austin Hollins. It is hard to see a reason why they
should not be improved, which should put them somewhere in the tournament.
·
I keep looking for reasons to think Illinois should
be awful, but they don’t pop up. They lose a couple of starters, but I am not
sure they miss either much. Jon Ekey was their most efficient scorer (which was
important on a team that struggled so mightily to score), but he was used so
infrequently as a starter. It is sad that Tracy Abrams already blew out his
ACL, but I am not sure he was that good anyway. This maybe just puts more
pressure on Seton Hall transfer Aaron Cosby to be successful as a point guard. He
is not the only transfer they gain as they also add Darius Paul from Western
Michigan and Ahmad Starks from Oregon State. All were double digit scorers at
their previous schools.
·
It would not be surprising of Tom Crean is in
his last year at Indiana. They were not NIT quality last year and that was with
Noah Vonleh. He leaves, along with two other senior starters. Five guys
transferred out of the program. Their recruiting class was not particularly
big, but it was good. That might be Crean’s saving grace; I doubt the team’s
2014-15 performance will be.
·
Maryland and Rutgers both join the Big 10.
Rutgers will be terrible, but Maryland may not be. They had no seniors, but
they lose 5 transfers who somehow all played decent roles. Just one was a starter.
Richaud Pack joins from North Carolina A&T where he was a 17 point per game
scorer. Maryland should be a bubble team, but their transfers could lead to an
issue with depth.
Predicted order of finish:
1.
Wisconsin
2.
Iowa
3.
Ohio State
4.
Michigan State
5.
Michigan
6.
Minnesota
7.
Nebraska
8.
Maryland
9.
Illinois
10.
Indiana
11.
Purdue
12.
Penn State
13.
Northwestern
14.
Rutgers
