What the pundits are saying
Odds for “prem winners” on the season is as follows.
Everyone thinks there are two teams that are overwhelming favorites to win the
title: Chelsea (favorites at just under 2/1) and ManCity (co-favorites at just
over 2/1). The next “tier” of teams for the title is ManchesterUnited (5/1) and
Arsenal (6/1). The top four spots are REALLY important because only the top
four teams get to play in the champions league the following season. Champions
league play means money from high profile matches against the top teams in
Europe, and high profile matches also mean you have a better ability to attract
top talent and in general is really important. Basically all the best teams in
Europe have “champions league qualification” as a minimum goal for every single
season.
In popular opinion, the next “tier” of teams - in order - is
Liverpool (12/1), Tottenham (66/1), and Everton 150/1). Essentially the popular
breakdown of the top 7 teams is that the top three teams feature “proven”
veterans and talent with “proven” coaches, Arsenal is a team with “proven”
players but a coach who always starts hot and finishes badly, and then the 5th,
6th, and 7th teams are young, unproven teams with
talented, unproven coaches. I think that’s a pretty fair breakdown of how
people view the league this year. (after Everton everyone else is 1000/1 sort
of thing)
What’s different about this season
As far as I’m concerned that’s just insane and I can only
think it’s based on a whole set of flawed assumptions where people are trying
to fit square pegs into round holes. My theory is that this year the
premiership is by far the most talented professional league in the history of
world football (or at least modern history). Usually every league DOES feature
something like 2-3 teams that are just head and shoulders above the rest (think
Barcelona/Madrid) and it’s really easy to identify those teams. Every once in a
blue moon a team might go on a crazy run of luck and take the league away from
those two teams, but ultimately that is a long shot every single year because
the top teams can just restock infinitely and go back to domination.
I’m pretty convinced that this year’s premiership is
different from that model in that I think there are SIX teams that are all
legit title contenders and that beyond that, there’s so much money in the prem
that even the “bad” teams are really good and would be top 5 teams in every
other league in Europe. Sunderland was a month away from relegation last year,
and this year they’re spending (or trying to spend) over £20 million, Cardiff
spent something like that last year and GOT relegated, Swansea, Stoke, etc. are
all spending tons of money on players and in every other league in Europe ONLY
the top teams spend that kind of money. Basically the premiership is the only
league where the “teams that could get relegated” have the money and talent to
actually compete even then with Europe’s elite. The league is crazy.
The top Six/Seven
And the top six teams fit that as well. ManCity and Chelsea
have spent a fortune acquiring the top stars from all over the world. Arsenal
bought big (Sanchez from Barcelona, trying to buy Khedira) and were already
good (fourth last year, were first for much of the season) and have a proven
manager. Manchester United are trying to spend a fortune, have a world-class
manager, and a team that won the prem two years ago. Tottenham have spent
something like £150m over the past two years, have a top manager and a ton of
young, world-class talent. And Liverpool got second last year and were HEAVY
favorites to win the title with 3 weeks to go, a Gerrard slip is all that cost
them the title, on top of which even THEY spent over £100m to improve their
team. Those sorts of sentences/prices are the things you can only write about
Bayern, Barcelona, Real, etc. There is no other league in the world where a team
has spent over £150 million over two years and is 66/1 to win the
title!!!!!!! (Tottenham) That is just absurd, as is the idea that they’re akin
to something like Valencia winning in Spain or Wolfsburg winning in Germany. Tottenham,
like Chelsea, is a team with a world-class manager and world-class talent, both
of which it’s paid princely sums for.
Ok, so I’ve sort of hinted at what I think of every team’s
offseason, but ManCity are more or less unchanged from being one of the best
teams in the world last season, with another season to gel under a talented
manager. They scored almost record pace in goals and allowed the fewest shots
on goal in over 5 years in the prem last year and added a defender in Mangala
this year. Chelsea have bought a lot and bought really well. They’ve added
Fabregas from Barcelona, who is maybe the best player at his position in the
world (27 year old attacking midfielder). He was even incredible playing out of
position for Barcelona. They finally have a top striker in Diego Costa as well
to go with Jose Mourinho’s typically solid defense. Last year they finished
third largely behind a great defense but terrible scoring record, and this year
with Fabregas and Costa their attacking should be much improved, which is why
they’re title favorites. I’m not convinced that they’ll either be strong enough
at the back (led by 33 year old John Terry) or up front (Costa is skilled,
strong, and slow. And has no backup) to win, I kind of feel like they’ll be
similar to last year though Fabregas is REALLY good and scares me. Last year
they flirted with the Prem title and with the Champions League title, so they
were really good but ultimately they were pretty deserving of third in the
prem, their goal difference was decidedly less than either ManCity’s or
Liverpool’s.
Arsenal bought Alexis Sanchez from Barcelona and are looking
for another big signing to boost their attack as well as looking for help at
the back. They were really good last year until they fell off at the end, and
they’ve been in the top four of the prem for something like 15 straight years
despite not having won for a decade. Every year under Wenger Arsenal play
attractive football and give up silly goals and have trouble scoring critical
goals, and there’s no particular reason to think that will change. Wenger may
be the worst manager of the top seven (which is saying something because he is
incredible) and it’s hard to believe that this team is going to be good enough
either offensively or defensively to win the title. Though presumably they’ll
be top 2 going into December like always so… anything’s possible.
Liverpool were second last year, and probably should have
finished first. It’s hard to believe that’s a flash-in-the-pan because they
only lost one player from last year – their best player. They actually have a
better record without him playing, and under their manager Brendan Rodgers they’ve
scored the most goals of any team in the premiership both WITHOUT Luis Suarez
and WITH Luis Suarez (and they’ve spent many games without him). They were
extremely young last year, and this year players like Sturridge, Coutinho, and
Sterling appear poised to be even BETTER than they were last year, since their
ages (24, 22, 19) suggest improvement. They’ve solidified at the back as well
as they can with Dejan Lovren, and they’ve arguably the best threesome of center
backs in the prem in Sakho, Lovren and Skrtl. They’ve bought over £100 worth of
young talent at basically all positions, and Coutinho/Sterling were already two
of the closest statistical matches for Suarez’s production in Europe
(particularly Coutinho seems poised for a breakout season). Why this team is
12/1 to win the title when they SHOULD be defending champs seems crazy to me.
Atletico, who did win Spain, are about the same odds to win La Liga despite having
lost 5 players and brought in 2. Liverpool’s buys have, by all appearances,
been intelligent and young if they can finish top 4 again this year you have to
think that they’ll be in great position to be a perennially top 5 team in
Europe with a great youth system and a full squad of really young talent with a
great young manager leading them on.
Tottenham I touched on a bit, but ultimately I see last year
very differently from the average pundit. Last year they lost one star (Gareth
Bale to Real Madrid) and brought in 6 young, talented players who were all
fairly expensive. They had a coaching nightmare with two coaches who flamed out
spectacularly and got tactics dead wrong on a number of very high profile
occasions, and also had devastating injuries in what was an incredibly thin
defense. Despite all this, they finished 6th, 3 points worse than
the previous season. This year they’re looking to spend another £20-30 or so
(having been rebuffed so far by Southampton and others) and they have a new,
very talented manager in Mauricio Pochettino whose high-pressure style matches
the players they have. They’ve added depth to the defense (including a rumored
purchase of American youngster DeAndre Yedlin) and still have that young talent
they purchased last year ready to shine (I expect a massive year out of Erik
Lamela, who was incredible before Tottenham purchased him last year). I fully
expect Tottenham to challenge for the premier league title this year, and I
think their odds to win should be more like 15/1 than 66.
Manchester United are the only team I’ve not touched on. The
logic for them being great this year is that they won the prem two years ago,
got a new (crappy) manager last year and sucked, and now they’ve a good manager
again (to go with many new, expensive players) they’ll be back to the top. First
of all, this argument is flawed because ManU were terrible when they won the
title. They looked average in “the eye test” and advanced statistics hated them
(they were 7th or so in shots produced and allowed). Last year they
acquired a more average manager and finished – surprise, surprise – 7th.
So at the very least we can say that of the top 7 teams this is the team that
has the farthest hurdle to climb. They’ve been mediocre for a couple of years
and this is essentially year 1 of their rebuilding effort, whereas every other
team has been on a particular path for at least 2 years already. They’ve been
really successful in the preseason this year (oh well in that case just give
them the premiership trophy already!), but Van Gaal has never coached in a
league remotely as competitive as the premiership (he is the only manager of
the top 7 with no experience in the prem) and is unlikely to believe that his
philosophies could be tweaked (he is 62 years old and stubborn, to say the
least). He has had trouble with teams that defend well in the past (Algeria
took his Holland team to extra time this past world cup) and he’ll face a
talented defense every single week in the premiership. I find it hard to
believe they’ll finish in the top 4 this year, and I’m not sure they’ll finish above
7th just because every other team is already so solid.
Everton I haven’t talked about, but they just spent their
club record (and then some) to get the same striker they had last year (Romelu
Lukaku). They also signed Gareth Barry (who played for them last year), so they
have essentially spent a lot of money (along with a young midfielder named
Muhammad Besic from Hungary) to have the same team as last year. Last year they
were very good, but I don’t see that they’ve improved a lot in talent the way
the other 6 teams they’re competing with have. They have a brilliant manager
and I think they’ll be very similar to last season when they gave Arsenal a
real run for their money for the fourth overall spot.
Everyone else
Beyond those teams, every other team in the premiership
seems like a really tough team to beat. Newcastle have made a whole host of
signings, and Alan Pardew has regularly taken them into the top 8 teams in the
premiership with shrewd signings and attractive football. Southampton have sold
half their team, but they have (along with Liverpool) the best youth system in
the premiership and will almost certainly be fine this year, bringing along
another cohort of great youth players. Stoke were impossible to beat away last
year, and their manager Mark Hughes has them playing good defense as well as
attractive football. Swansea consistently play good football, they’ve kept onto
their team and are arguably the best possession side in the premiership. Hull,
Crystal Palace, and West Ham will play stifling defense and take draws or
bullshit victories out of teams all season. Sunderland came on strong and are
spending to stay up, as are WestBrom who broke their own transfer fee record
this offseason. The league is stacked to the point where I’d hate to put money
on ManCity @CrystalPalace almost as much as I’d be scared to put money on them
to win @RealMadrid.
Stupid Predictions/bets
As far as basic, numbers guesses I’d probably guess a table
looking something like this at the end of the season. For the record I don’t
really care about predictions like this much because there are too many
variables, but whatever here’s a list at least:
1)
Manchester City
2)
Chelsea
3)
Liverpool
4)
Tottenham
5)
Arsenal
6)
Everton
7)
Manchester United
8)
Newcastle
9)
Swansea
10)
Stoke
11)
Southampton
12)
Crystal Palace
13)
Hull
14)
Sunderland
15)
West Ham
16)
West Brom
17)
Aston Villa
18)
Leicester
19)
QPR
20)
Burnley
As far as bets I think putting money on Liverpool at 12/1
and Tottenham at 66/1 to win the league are stellar bets, as well as odds to
finish top 4 (1/1 and 3/1 respectively). Liverpool to win the title with
Sturridge as lead goalscorer at 28/1 is pretty.
I think Daniel Sturridge at 5/1 to be top goalscorer is an
absolute steal, Liverpool have proven they will score a ton of goals (and
arguably let in a lot as well) and he’s their only striker of note. By the same
logic, I love Raheem Sterling at 66/1 and Phillipe Coutinho at 150/1 for the
same bet.
Alexis Sanchez at 16/1 seems like a nice bet – arsenal do
score goals and you have to assume he’ll be their leading goalscorer. Stevan
Jovetic at 33/1 seems nice, since Aguero (4/1) is constantly injured and we
know Mancity will score goals. Harry Kane at 250/1 seems nice too, maybe he’s
the best striker on a rejuvenated tottenham? I’m pretty sure Soldado is not the
answer there.
I don’t love any of the relegation bets, but QPR at 2/1
seems the best bet given that Harry Redknapp is a bad manager and he already
hates his team (according to his autobiography).
Liverpool
As a separate, less “overall” view of the prem and
specifically on Liverpool I’m really excited about this season. Last year I
went into the season very apprehensive about the manager Brendan Rodgers. He
was young and sort of appeared to believe “he knew everything already,” which
would have been a death sentence for the club because he made some fairly
glaring mistakes in his first season (despite playing pretty football). On the
contrary he appeared to change his entire philosophy going into the season(he
came to Liverpool preaching possession and then last year dominated the prem
with a fierce counter-attacking style) and experimented with a whole host of
innovative lineups all season. Until further notice I think it’s safe to think
that the club is in really good hands with the manager and even if this season
is a failure (ie we finish 7th or so), we’ll STILL have a good youth
system and a really promising manager who is not afraid to take risks and makes
decision based on long-term results rather than the short term.
I also think Liverpool is one of the few teams whose
philosophy involves scoring in place of defense. Liverpool routinely play as aggressively
up 2-0 as when it’s 0-0, the logic being that it’ll be easier to win 5-2 in
that circumstance than to just “park the bus” and eke out a 2-1 victory. This
seems to work statistically as well as make them just an absolute pleasure to
watch every weekend (Liverpool were the most watched team in the prem this past
year). Teams like Chelsea often try to bend their tactics towards defense, and
then allow their skilled attackers to break down the defense on their own.
Liverpool on the other hand throw their entire team into the attack pretty much
all the time, which is both relatively unique and tons of fun to watch.
As a result, despite having a leaky defense last year they’ve
spent most of their money on attack this season. Lazar Markovic at age 20 is as
good a bet to be “the next big winger” as anyone else, Adam Llallana is a
midfield general, Emre Can looks like a young (20) Henderson who can play
anywhere on the pitch, Javier Manquillo will hopefully play well overlapping
from the wing back position and Ricky Lambert was a great striker for
Southampton last year. Dejan Lovren looks great at centerback as well – the
squad should be MUCH deeper than last year as well as more flexible to playing
different tactical styles. They’ve three good center backs to choose from
(Sakho, Lovren, Skrtl) and others coming through the bench to be able to play
three center backs if they want to. Their weakest position is wing back, with Glen
Johnson, Javier Manquillo, Jose Enrique, Martin Kelly and John Flanagan making
up all they have (if they never sign Alberto Moreno), none of whom are world
class anymore. I could even imagine them playing 3-5-2 with Henderson and Can
at wingbacks, or experiments of the sort to see how it goes. Their midfield and
strike-force is great as it was last year, and will be all the better if the
new signings can fit in well.
I’ll be surprised if they score way fewer goals than they
did last season. Suarez was brilliant, but all of his touches will now go to
somebody else who also isn’t terrible (coutinho? Sterling?) and the focus of
the team will revolve in different ways, but still be equally attack-minded. I
guess in general I expect a fairly similar season to last year. I think we will
attack all the time and as a result allow a higher number of goals than most of
the other top teams, but also score more. The hope with Lovren and Skrtl is
that they’re good enough defenders to make “saving” tackles and blocks and the
like, because there will be many times in every game where they’re left out on
an island. They’re talented enough to deal with it, and talented coming forward
themselves and the team seems really well put together to me. I’ll be very
surprised if Liverpool are worlds apart from the other top 6 teams, and a top
four finish of really exciting football should help to cement Liverpool into
Europe’s top clubs, making them more attractive to other players and giving
them a sustainable business model to be successful year in year out.
